Recorded on February 10, 2026
Trader Ferg returns with Andy Millette to map the commodity tape the way a real trader does: through physical flow, incentives, and where price discovery is actually happening. They dig into why central banks are “forced by the math,” why volatility and paper smashes can mislead, and why the premium in physical metals is the tell. The conversation runs through China’s delivery-first approach to commodities and why gold can function as settlement collateral in a shifting global trade system. From precious metals to base metals positioning (including tin and copper), the discussion stays grounded in what’s priced in versus what’s ignored. They close with one of the cleanest “deep value” setups in the space: oil services—where supply response is slow, day rates can reset, and the crowd is late. #Millettian
Key topics
Why the Fed is “forced by the math” and what that means for real assets
Delivery vs paper: why China’s structure matters for price discovery
Physical premiums as the tell (even during aggressive price smashes)
Gold as settlement collateral and how trade systems can shift
Base metals positioning: what’s consensus vs what’s contrarian
Oil services as an asymmetric setup: supply lag, day-rate reset potential
Risk management: long-vol exposure and correlation events
Guest links
Trader Ferg (Substack): https://traderferg.substack.com/
Trader Ferg (X): https://x.com/trader_ferg?lang=en
Host
Host Andy Millette Natural Resource Stocks
Website https://www.NaturalResourceStocks.net
YouTube Main https://www.youtube.com/@naturalresourcestocks
YouTube Clips https://www.youtube.com/@NaturalResoureStocksClips
X https://x.com/theandymillette
LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/andymillette/
NRS LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/naturalresourcestocks-net/
NRS Facebook https://www.facebook.com/people/Natural-Resource-Stocks/100090526686713/
NRS TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@natural.resource.stocks
NRS Instagram https://www.instagram.com/naturalresourcestocks/
Chapters
00:00 Cold Open: “Forced by the math” + delivery vs paper
01:35 Welcome back: Trader Ferg joins Andy
02:09 Commodities move in waves: storage and scarcity
03:27 Storage-cost repricing: metals sequence
04:35 China’s futures structure: industrial delivery focus
05:06 Contract specs, physical pull, and why it matters
06:09 Smashes vs premiums: the tell that doesn’t fade
08:02 Gold as settlement: “petrodollar” framework shift
09:19 Gold/silver run: optionality and positioning
11:05 What’s cheap now: base metals and consensus trades
13:46 Oil services: “the biggest layup” setup
16:25 Bottom signals: narrative absence and capitulation
18:00 Leverage + dislocations: why “smooth rotation” is unlikely
23:48 Long vol + risk: hedging correlation events
25:18 Oil services follow-through: day rates and pricing power
35:10 Wrap
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