Copper and nickel are slightly higher today in a relatively calm session for industrial metals. Copper is grinding upward while nickel is basically flat—suggesting more “macro drift + positioning” than a single, dominant headline catalyst.
Today’s pricing snapshot (Feb 20, 2026):
- Copper: $5.76/lb, +0.37%
- Nickel: $17,305.38/metric ton, +0.03%
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) A modest macro tailwind: dollar slightly softer + yields easing
A small dip in the U.S. dollar can support USD-priced commodities, and slightly lower yields can ease financial conditions at the margin. Today, DXY was marginally lower and the U.S. 10-year yield eased to ~4.08%.
2) Copper is still trading the “China demand pulse”
Even on quiet days, copper sentiment tends to hinge on expectations for Chinese construction, grid spend, and manufacturing activity. When traders don’t have fresh supply shocks, copper often reverts to this demand barometer. (Goldman has recently pointed to weaker Chinese refined copper consumption as a key swing factor in the broader copper narrative.)
3) Supply and inventories: copper can tighten quickly—then cool just as fast
Copper is extremely sensitive to perceived tightness because disruptions, inventory shifts, and stockpiling can change the “feel” of the market rapidly. Goldman has emphasized that, beneath the rally, the market is also watching an underlying supply overhang/surplus dynamic for 2025–2026—which can cap upside when risk appetite fades.
4) Nickel’s bigger picture: surplus pressure keeps rallies contained
Nickel’s tiny gain today fits the broader setup: the market has been wrestling with surplus conditions, which tends to limit sustained upside unless there’s a clear demand shock or a supply disruption. A recent industry roundup (via Nasdaq/INN) specifically highlights expectations that nickel could remain under pressure in 2026 due to surplus, with upside risk tied to disruptions or stronger stainless/battery demand.
5) Positioning + technicals matter more on “small move” days
When prices only move a few tenths of a percent, flow-driven forces can dominate: rebalancing, CTA/systematic activity, and traders defending nearby technical levels. That’s consistent with today’s tape—copper up modestly, nickel nearly unchanged—rather than a broad, high-conviction repricing of fundamentals.
What to watch next (quick checklist)
- DXY direction + real yields (macro tailwind vs. headwind)
- China macro/data headlines (demand pulse for copper)
- Visible inventory trends (tightness signals)
- Nickel surplus / Indonesia supply-policy headlines (bearish base case vs. disruption risk)
- Key technical levels: do prices hold recent supports or fade back into consolidation?
Bottom line
On Feb 20, 2026, copper ($5.76/lb, +0.37%) is edging higher while nickel ($17,305/t, +0.03%) is essentially flat—consistent with a session driven by mild macro support (softer dollar, slightly lower yields) and positioning, while the bigger tug-of-war remains copper’s China-linked demand outlook and nickel’s surplus-heavy supply backdrop.
