Copper is nudging higher today while nickel is slightly lower, as the market digests a softer U.S. dollar, steady-to-slightly higher yields, and a tug-of-war between “structural demand stories” (copper) versus “policy-driven supply and surplus debates” (nickel).
Today’s pricing snapshot (CFD benchmarks)
- Copper: $5.96/lb, +0.46% (Trading Economics)
- Nickel: $18,063.38/metric ton, -0.20% (Trading Economics)
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Macro: USD is softer, yields are steady-ish
A weaker dollar often supports commodities priced in USD. Today, DXY is ~97.68 (-0.21%).
Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year yield is around ~4.04–4.05%, slightly higher on the session, which can temper risk appetite at the margin.
2) Copper: still “electrification + AI/grid buildout” in the driver’s seat
Copper remains elevated after its January 2026 peak (all-time high around 6.58 on TE’s series), and the market continues to price long-duration demand tied to power infrastructure and data-center buildouts.
3) Copper: positioning is cooling a bit even as prices stay high
CFTC-style “interest in copper” looks calmer today versus yesterday: an AP market snapshot shows lower estimated volume and lower open interest versus Feb 24, suggesting some consolidation after the big run.
4) Nickel: Indonesia policy is the swing lever
Nickel continues to trade headline-to-headline on Indonesia, which dominates refined supply. A Financial Times letter highlights quota reductions and production caps as part of Indonesia’s downstreaming strategy and as a response to oversupply concerns.
Goldman likewise notes that Indonesia’s supply decisions are the key lever the market is watching, after raising its 2026 nickel forecast earlier this month.
5) Nickel: operational disruptions can add a risk premium (but not every day)
Nickel is also sensitive to operational risk in Indonesia. Reuters reporting (via MINING.COM) described a landslide at the Morowali nickel hub that halted operations, underscoring why nickel can stay jumpy even when the day’s net move is small.
What to watch next
- DXY + real yields (macro tailwind vs. headwind)
- China macro/data headlines (copper demand pulse)
- LME/visible inventory signals (tightness vs. slack narratives)
- Indonesia nickel quota / policy updates (biggest nickel catalyst)
- Supply disruption headlines (Indonesia ops; LatAm copper mining risks)
Bottom line
On Feb 25, 2026, copper ($5.96/lb, +0.46%) is firming as the market keeps a bid under electrification/AI-driven demand themes, while nickel ($18,063/t, -0.20%) is drifting lower amid ongoing uncertainty around Indonesia’s supply management and episodic operational risk.
