Copper and nickel are both higher on March 25, but nickel is bouncing more sharply. Trading Economics shows copper at about $5.48-$5.49/lb, up roughly 1.1%-1.2% on the day, while nickel is at about $17,345/tonne, up 2.15%. That points to a rebound session for both metals after a weak stretch, with nickel reacting more strongly to supply-side support.
Today’s pricing snapshot
Copper is still down about 7.7%-7.8% over the past month but remains roughly 5.0%-5.1% higher than a year ago, according to Trading Economics. Nickel has fallen about 2.17% over the past month but is still up about 7.10% year over year. So even with today’s rebound, both metals are still recovering from recent pressure rather than breaking into a clean new uptrend.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest structural supports remains the squeeze in concentrate supply. Reuters-reported coverage says Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on 2026 treatment and refining charges of $0 per metric ton and 0 cents per pound, versus $21.25/tonne and 2.125 cents/lb for 2025. That kind of TC/RC collapse is a strong sign that smelter feedstock remains extremely tight, even when spot copper prices are volatile.
2) High visible inventories are still capping copper’s upside
Copper’s near-term problem is that the market can still see a lot of metal in storage. Reuters-linked reporting says combined inventories on Comex, the LME, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose above 1 million tonnes, the first time since 2004, reaching about 1.012 million tonnes. That visible inventory overhang helps explain why copper can have a bullish long-term supply story while still struggling to sustain rallies.
3) Indonesia’s quota cuts are still the main nickel story
Nickel’s core support remains Indonesia’s tighter ore policy. Market reporting says Indonesia’s energy ministry is cutting the 2026 RKAB quota for nickel production to about 260-270 million tonnes, down sharply from 2025 levels. Since Indonesia dominates global nickel supply growth, quota cuts of that size remain one of the market’s most important drivers.
4) Nickel is still reacting to supply restraint more than to demand strength
Trading Economics’ nickel coverage says the metal recently fell toward $17,100-$17,200/tonne amid broader industrial-metals weakness and risk-off flows, even as Indonesia’s tighter quotas limited downside. That suggests today’s move is still more about supply discipline and short-covering than about a major improvement in stainless steel or battery demand.
5) Copper and nickel are being driven by different versions of the same supply story
Copper’s issue is concentrate scarcity flowing through the smelting chain, while nickel’s issue is direct ore restriction from the world’s dominant producer. That is why copper can rebound only modestly while nickel jumps harder on the day: nickel’s policy-driven supply story is easier for traders to price quickly, while copper is still fighting the drag from visible inventories. This is an inference from the current price action and supply backdrop.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze starts to matter more than the drag from bloated exchange inventories. For nickel, traders will keep watching whether Indonesia sticks to tighter quotas and whether actual output comes in below even those lower approved levels. In both markets, the next move likely depends on whether supply tightness can outweigh still-cautious macro sentiment.
Bottom line
On March 25, 2026, copper and nickel are both rebounding, but nickel has the stronger day-to-day catalyst because Indonesia’s quota cuts remain a direct support for the market. Copper still has the clearer long-term scarcity story, but high visible inventories are keeping that bullish case from fully showing up in price.
