Copper and nickel are both lower on March 26, with copper slipping more clearly in the latest public pricing. Trading Economics shows copper at about $5.45-$5.46/lb, down roughly 1.2%-1.4% on the day, while nickel is around $17,165-$17,290/tonne, down about 0.3%-1.0% depending on the latest update shown. That keeps both metals in a cautious, risk-off pattern after their brief rebound earlier this week.
Today’s pricing snapshot
Trading Economics says copper is down about 9.1%-9.2% over the past month but still roughly 6.9%-7.1% higher than a year ago. Nickel is down about 2.3%-3.0% over the past month while remaining about 5.7%-6.5% higher year over year. In other words, copper is under heavier short-term pressure, while nickel has held up a bit better on a medium-term basis despite today’s weakness.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest structural supports remains the squeeze in concentrate supply. Reuters-reported coverage says Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on 2026 treatment and refining charges of $0 per metric ton and 0 cents per pound, versus $21.25/tonne and 2.125 cents/lb for 2025. Another report noted spot charges had already turned deeply negative, underscoring how tight feedstock has become for smelters.
2) High visible inventories are still capping copper’s upside
Copper’s near-term problem is that the market can still see a lot of metal in storage. Recent reporting says global exchange inventories rose above 1 million tonnes for the first time since 2004. That visible stock overhang helps explain why copper can have a bullish long-term supply story while still trading lower in the short term.
3) Indonesia’s quota cuts are still the main nickel story
Nickel’s core support remains Indonesia’s tighter ore policy. Argus reported that Indonesia’s energy ministry is cutting the 2026 nickel production quota to about 260-270 million tonnes, and Trading Economics has likewise described approved ore quotas in roughly that same range. Since Indonesia dominates global nickel supply growth, cuts of that size remain one of the market’s most important drivers.
4) Nickel is still reacting to supply restraint more than to demand strength
Recent Trading Economics coverage says nickel’s earlier rally toward $17,900/tonne and even a 19-month high near $18,900/tonne was driven by confidence that Indonesia would slow production growth, not by a major improvement in end demand. That matters today because nickel’s support still looks mainly policy-driven, which makes it vulnerable when broader market sentiment turns cautious.
5) Copper and nickel are being driven by different versions of the same supply story
Copper’s issue is concentrate scarcity flowing through the smelting chain, while nickel’s issue is direct ore restriction from the world’s dominant producer. That is why copper can look weaker even with a tight structural backdrop, while nickel tends to react faster to policy headlines out of Indonesia. This is an inference from the current price action and the supply backdrop.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze starts to matter more than the drag from visible inventories. For nickel, traders will keep watching whether Indonesia sticks to tighter quotas and whether actual output lands below even those lower approved levels. In both markets, the next move likely depends on whether supply tightness can outweigh cautious macro sentiment.
Bottom line
On March 26, 2026, copper looks weaker because the market is still focusing on visible inventory pressure, while nickel remains better supported by Indonesia’s supply restraint even as it slips on the day. Copper still has the clearer long-term scarcity story, but nickel remains the more policy-sensitive metal day to day.
