Copper and nickel are pulling in different directions on April 17. The latest public Trading Economics updates show copper around $6.03-$6.08/lb on the day, with one same-day reading down 0.66% and another up 0.21%, while nickel is around $17,985/tonne, down 1.69% on April 17 in the freshest posted update. That leaves copper looking choppy but resilient, while nickel is clearly softer today.
Today’s pricing snapshot
Trading Economics says copper is up roughly 8.5%-9.5% over the past month and about 30.9%-32.1% year over year. Nickel is up roughly 4.8%-6.0% over the past month and about 14.2%-16.2% from a year ago, even after today’s drop. So both metals still have strong annual gains, but copper has the stronger medium-term momentum right now.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest structural supports remains the squeeze in concentrate supply. Reuters-reported coverage says Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on 2026 treatment and refining charges of $0 per metric ton and 0 cents per pound, versus $21.25/tonne and 2.125 cents/lb for 2025. That kind of TC/RC collapse is a strong sign that smelter feedstock remains extremely tight.
2) Copper is also getting help from improving risk sentiment
A recent Reuters pickup reported copper hit a one-month high earlier this week as hopes for U.S.-Iran talks lifted broader industrial-metals sentiment. That helps explain why copper is holding near $6/lb even with some intraday volatility today.
3) Nickel’s core support still comes from Indonesia’s quota cuts
Nickel’s main structural support remains Indonesia’s tighter ore policy. Argus reported Indonesia’s 2026 work-plan and budget quota for nickel production is expected to be cut to about 260-270 million tonnes. Since Indonesia dominates global nickel supply growth, cuts of that size remain one of the market’s biggest drivers.
4) But nickel is still fighting a weaker broader setup than copper
A recent market analysis noted that while Indonesia’s quota cut supports prices, the global nickel market is still expected to remain oversupplied in 2026, which caps the scope for a sustained rally. That helps explain why nickel is weaker today even though the quota-cut story is still in place.
5) Copper and nickel are being driven by different versions of the same supply story
Copper’s issue is concentrate scarcity flowing through the smelting chain, while nickel’s issue is direct ore restriction from the world’s dominant producer. That is why copper can stay relatively firm while nickel slips: copper’s tightness is reinforced by smelter economics, while nickel remains more vulnerable to shifts in broader market mood and oversupply concerns. This is an inference from the reported price action and supply backdrop.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze keeps outweighing any short-term macro wobble. For nickel, traders will keep watching whether Indonesia sticks to tighter quotas and whether actual output lands low enough to offset the wider oversupply narrative.
Bottom line
On April 17, 2026, copper looks like the stronger market because its supply tightness is showing up through both price action and refining economics. Nickel still has support from Indonesia’s quota cuts, but today’s decline shows that policy support alone is not enough to overpower broader market caution.
