In this Natural Resource Stocks interview, host Steve Yang sits down with Matt Warder, founder of Seawolf Research and creator of The Coal Trader, an energy, metals, and mining analyst with nearly two decades of experience in global resource and industrial markets. Matt has advised miners, institutions, and governments on coal, iron ore, and steel, and now runs The Coal Trader platform focused on coal and related commodity cycles.
The opinions expressed in this interview are solely those of the guest and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natural Resource Stocks or Galt Consulting Group. This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
Matt traces his path from scholarship athlete and working musician to coal and energy analyst, including his years at Wood Mackenzie and the launch of Seawolf Research and The Coal Trader. That background frames how he looks at the capital cycle in coal, steel, and related commodities and why he still believes fundamental analysis matters in an increasingly narrative driven market.
From there we zoom out to the macro. Matt explains why global energy demand keeps rising, how post pandemic supply destruction left the system tight, and why the massive buildout of artificial intelligence data centers is suddenly the wild card for baseload power. He lays out why renewables are not dispatchable, why you still have to burn something to keep the lights on, and why coal and natural gas remain central to the grid even as policy rhetoric pushes in the opposite direction.
Matt then breaks down the coal market into its two main segments. On the thermal side, he looks at power demand, plant retirements, exports, and the coal versus natural gas tug of war, especially in the United States. On the metallurgical side, he explains why premium low and mid volatile met coals used in steelmaking are facing a structural shortage later this decade, with essentially no new high quality supply being built even as future demand from steel and infrastructure could rise again.
He walks through what is happening in China and India, how Chinese steel exports and still growing thermal demand interact with ramping Indian production, and why any end to the Russia Ukraine war and eventual rebuilding of Ukraine could pull even more coking coal into steel production. Throughout the conversation, Matt keeps tying the story back to the realities of baseload power, AI driven demand for electricity, and the limits of relying on intermittent renewables to carry the load.
Finally, Matt shares how he looks at coal equities. He discusses domestic thermal producers like Peabody Energy (BTU), Consol Energy (CEIX via Core Natural Resources), and Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), along with select global met coal names. He focuses on capital allocation, buybacks, balance sheets, and where we are in the met coal cycle rather than short term price moves. If you want a grounded framework for how coal, gas, steel, and AI buildout fit together in the energy transition, this conversation with Matt Warder will help you think beyond headlines. #Millettian
Guest links – Matt Warder The Coal Trader
The Coal Trader website
https://thecoaltrader.com
The Coal Trader Substack
https://thecoaltrader.substack.com
Seawolf Research and rare earth focused research feed
https://substack.com/@seawolfresearch
Matt Warder on X
https://x.com/mfwarder
Matt Warder on LinkedIn
https://www.linkedin.com/in/mfwarder/
Host – Steve Yang Natural Resource Stocks
Website
https://www.NaturalResourceStocks.net
YouTube main channel Natural Resource Stocks
https://www.youtube.com/@naturalresourcestocks
YouTube clips channel Natural Resource Stocks Clips
https://www.youtube.com/@NaturalResoureStocksClips
X
https://x.com/TheSteveYang
LinkedIn
https://www.linkedin.com/in/thesteveyang/
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