The quick read: what happened today?
After yesterday’s downshift, copper and nickel are both modestly higher today, helped by a stabilization in risk appetite and a market still fixated on supply-chain/policy headlines (especially for nickel).
Today’s pricing snapshot
- Copper: $5.70/lb (+1.10%) — updated Feb 18, 2026.
- Nickel:$16,878.50/tonne (+0.29%) — updated Feb 18, 2026.
- That’s roughly $7.66/lb (conversion shown in the infographic, based on the per-tonne quote).
6 drivers behind today’s copper move (up)
1) “Bounce day” behavior after a sharp pullback from January highs
Copper is still digesting the comedown from a January 2026 record high, so rebounds like today often reflect positioning resets rather than a sudden fundamental reversal.
2) Futures market activity remains in focus
AP’s copper futures tape shows active trading today (with volume and open interest updates), which matters because flow + liquidity can dominate short-term price moves.
3) The structural debate: supply isn’t the only bottleneck
A Financial Times report highlights a key theme for 2026: in the U.S., the constraint may be processing capacity, not raw copper supply—supportive for “policy premium” narratives that can keep dips bought.
4) “Peak-to-now” pullback is still the backdrop
Recent coverage notes copper has fallen meaningfully from peak levels, and markets tend to see that as either healthy consolidation or an early warning—today’s bounce fits the “consolidation” camp.
5) Macro tone (USD/rates/growth) is still steering intraday direction
Copper trades like a global growth barometer; when the macro tape eases even a bit, the first response is often a relief bounce.
6) Big-picture tightness hasn’t disappeared
Even after the pullback, copper is still up strongly year-over-year in the benchmark series—keeping longer-term bulls engaged on down days and rebounds.
5 drivers behind today’s nickel move (up)
1) Indonesia policy headlines continue to underpin nickel
Today’s nickel firmness is happening against a backdrop of Indonesia tightening control over nickel resources and the policy uncertainty that creates—often supportive for prices on rebound sessions.
2) Supply-management narrative vs. demand uncertainty
Indonesia’s attempts to manage the nickel complex collide with shifting EV battery demand (e.g., more LFP use requiring less nickel), producing choppy but headline-driven price action.
3) “Critical minerals geopolitics” adds a risk premium
The U.S.–China tug-of-war over critical minerals keeps a geopolitical premium embedded in the nickel story, even when day-to-day moves are small.
4) Recent weakness sets up mean reversion
Nickel has been soft over the last month in the benchmark series, and markets often see modest up days as mechanical mean reversion unless a fresh catalyst breaks the range.
5) Thin liquidity can magnify small shifts in sentiment
Nickel is prone to outsized swings on flow changes; today’s move is modest, but it fits the same “liquidity + headline” profile that characterizes the metal.
Bottom line
Feb 18, 2026: copper is $5.70/lb (+1.10%) and nickel is $16,878.50/tonne (+0.29%).
Copper’s move reads like a post-pullback rebound with policy/processing themes still supportive, while nickel remains anchored to Indonesia-driven supply policy and critical-minerals geopolitics.
