Copper and nickel are slightly lower today as traders juggle a mixed macro backdrop (a softer dollar and lower yields) against risk-off sentiment and ongoing debates about demand vs. supply in base metals.
Today’s pricing snapshot (Feb 23, 2026):
- Copper: $5.83/lb, -0.17% (CFD benchmark)
- Nickel: $17,290/metric ton, -0.83% (CFD benchmark)
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Macro is supportive… but the tape is risk-off
The U.S. dollar index is softer (a typical tailwind for commodities), and the U.S. 10-year yield is lower today—conditions that often help industrial metals at the margin.
But broader markets are dealing with heightened uncertainty tied to U.S. tariff headlines and policy whiplash, which can weigh on “growth-sensitive” metals like copper and nickel.
2) Copper remains a “China demand pulse” trade
Copper price action still tracks expectations for China’s construction + manufacturing cycle. When the market lacks a clear supply shock, copper often drifts with the daily push/pull of demand expectations—especially around China data and stimulus chatter.
3) Inventories and visible stocks can flip the narrative fast
Inventory trends matter because they can quickly shift the market’s story from “tight” to “well-supplied.” LME warehouse/stock reporting is a key reference point traders monitor when copper sentiment gets shaky.
4) Nickel is still wrestling with surplus dynamics
Nickel’s downside bias is consistent with a market that many analysts expect to remain surplus-heavy into 2026, keeping rallies capped unless supply is curtailed or demand surprises.
5) Indonesia remains the swing lever for nickel
Even with a surplus backdrop, policy and quota decisions in Indonesia can move nickel quickly. Recent analysis highlights that Indonesia’s supply decisions (quotas, ore rules, environmental constraints) are the major lever the market is watching for 2026.
What to watch next (quick checklist)
- DXY + yields: does the macro tailwind persist?
- China data / demand signals (copper sensitivity)
- Visible inventories (LME) for copper & nickel
- Indonesia nickel policy headlines (quotas/ore/export rules)
- Key technical levels after January’s copper peak and this month’s volatility
Bottom line
On Feb 23, 2026, copper ($5.83/lb) and nickel ($17,290/t) are modestly lower, reflecting a market balancing supportive macro inputs (softer dollar, lower yields) against risk-off sentiment and ongoing uncertainty around demand (especially China) and nickel’s supply-heavy structure—with Indonesia policy still the key catalyst to watch.
