Copper and nickel are trading in different directions on March 12, with copper slipping modestly while nickel remains firmer. Copper is still being held back by heavy exchange inventories even though the longer-term supply picture remains tight, while nickel is drawing support from Indonesia’s tighter ore policy and continuing concern over how much supply will actually reach the market this year.
Today’s pricing snapshot
Trading Economics showed copper at roughly $5.82-$5.83/lb on March 12, down about 0.2%-0.45% on the day. Nickel pricing across market trackers was around $17,200-$17,700/tonne, reflecting a market that is still volatile but holding above the lows seen earlier in the year. Copper remains well below its January record high, while nickel is trying to build on its recent rebound.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest bullish supports remains the shortage of concentrate flowing into smelters. Reuters-reported coverage said Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed to zero treatment and refining charges for 2026, versus $21.25/tonne and 2.125 cents/lb for 2025. That kind of TC/RC collapse is a major signal that feedstock is tight, even if the headline copper price is softer today.
2) High visible inventories are capping copper’s upside
The reason copper is not reacting more positively to that tightness is that inventories are still acting as a brake. Reuters-reported coverage said combined copper stocks across Comex, the LME, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange topped 1 million tonnes, the highest level since 2004. That inventory build has been tied to softer Chinese demand and tariff-related stockpiling in the U.S., which helps explain why copper’s rallies have been struggling to extend.
3) Indonesia’s nickel quota cuts are still the main nickel story
For nickel, the dominant catalyst remains Indonesia’s ore policy. Reporting tied to Reuters and the Financial Times said Indonesia’s approved nickel ore work-plan quotas for 2026 are roughly 260-270 million tonnes, down from about 379 million tonnes in 2025. Since Indonesia is the world’s key nickel supplier, a cut of that size immediately tightens sentiment around the whole market.
4) Weda Bay made the supply tightening feel more real
Nickel’s move is not just about national quota headlines. The market has also focused on cuts at Weda Bay, one of the world’s biggest nickel mining complexes, which has made traders take Indonesia’s supply tightening much more seriously. The result is that nickel is reacting more to policy and mine-level restrictions than to broader macro noise right now.
5) Copper and nickel are being driven by different versions of the same supply story
Both metals still have supply-side support, but it shows up differently. Copper’s issue is a shortage of concentrate for smelters, while nickel’s issue is direct ore restriction from the world’s dominant producer. That is why copper can still have a strong structural bull case while trading lower in the short term, whereas nickel can hold up better because its immediate supply catalyst is more direct.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze eventually outweighs the pressure from large visible inventories. For nickel, traders will be watching whether Indonesia sticks with tighter quotas and whether actual production ends up below even the reduced approved levels. Those two supply stories are likely to keep driving price action more than anything else in the near term.
Bottom line
On March 12, 2026, copper is being weighed down by short-term inventory pressure, while nickel is being supported by tighter Indonesian supply policy. Copper still has the stronger long-term structural case because of concentrate scarcity, but nickel has the cleaner day-to-day catalyst right now because quota cuts and mine restrictions are immediate, visible, and easier for traders to price in.
