Copper and nickel are both softer today, though copper’s move is better documented in the latest public pricing. Trading Economics shows copper at $5.29/lb on March 19, down 4.79% on the day in its latest update. For nickel, the latest available Trading Economics quote is $17,299/tonne on March 18, up 0.25% on that session, so nickel’s publicly posted quote appears to be lagging by a day. The broader setup is still familiar: copper is being weighed down by visible inventories despite a tight concentrate market, while nickel remains tied to Indonesia’s supply policy.
Today’s pricing snapshot
Trading Economics says copper is down 9.43% over the past month but still 4.02% higher than a year ago in the latest March 19 reading. Nickel’s latest posted reading shows it roughly flat over the past month and up 5.39% year over year. That leaves copper under more immediate pressure, while nickel still looks steadier on a medium-term basis even if the freshest quote is from March 18.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest structural supports remains the squeeze in concentrate supply. Reuters-reported coverage says Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on 2026 treatment and refining charges of $0 per metric ton and 0 cents per pound, versus $21.25/tonne and 2.125 cents/lb for 2025. That kind of TC/RC collapse is a strong signal that smelter feedstock remains extremely tight, even when spot copper prices are falling.
2) High visible inventories are still capping copper’s upside
Copper’s near-term problem is that the market can still see a lot of metal in storage. Recent Reuters-linked reporting says combined stocks on Comex, the LME, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose above 1 million tonnes, the first time since 2004. That visible inventory overhang helps explain why copper can have a bullish long-term supply story while still selling off sharply in the short term.
3) Indonesia’s quota cuts are still the main nickel story
Nickel’s core support remains Indonesia’s tighter ore policy. Recent market reporting says Indonesia’s approved 2026 nickel ore work-plan quotas are roughly 260–270 million tonnes, down from about 379 million tonnes in 2025. Since Indonesia dominates global nickel supply growth, quota cuts of that size remain one of the most important drivers in the nickel market.
4) Weda Bay made the nickel tightening story much more tangible
The tightening story became more credible after the market focused on a major quota cut at PT Weda Bay Nickel, one of the world’s largest nickel operations. Recent reporting says the mine’s 2026 permitted output was cut to about 12 million tonnes from 42 million tonnes in 2025, reinforcing the view that Indonesia is serious about restraining supply rather than just talking about it.
5) Copper and nickel are still balancing tight supply against weaker near-term sentiment
Both metals still have supportive supply-side narratives, but neither is trading in a vacuum. Copper is being hit harder because inventories are highly visible right now, while nickel is holding up better because its main catalyst is policy-driven supply restraint rather than a broad demand rebound. That is an inference from the current pricing pattern plus the supply and inventory backdrop.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze starts to matter more than the drag from bloated exchange inventories. For nickel, traders will keep watching whether Indonesia maintains tighter quotas and whether actual output lands below those already-lower approved levels. In both markets, the next move likely depends on whether supply tightness can outweigh still-cautious macro sentiment.
Bottom line
On March 19, 2026, copper looks weaker because the market is focusing on high visible inventories, while nickel still has a firmer structural floor from Indonesia’s supply restraint. Copper has the clearer long-term scarcity story, but nickel remains the more policy-sensitive metal day to day.
