Copper and nickel are moving in opposite directions on March 31. Copper is modestly higher, while nickel is under renewed pressure. Trading Economics shows copper at $5.48-$5.52/lb, up roughly 0.14%-0.85% on the day, while nickel is at $17,038.75/tonne, down 1.65%. That split suggests copper is finding some support from its long-term tight-supply story, while nickel is being dragged lower by a weaker short-term market tone.
Today’s pricing snapshot
Trading Economics says copper is down about 6.3%-7.0% over the past month but still 9.1%-9.9% higher than a year ago. Nickel is down about 0.97% over the past month but still 5.37% higher year over year. So even with today’s divergence, both metals are still trading off a stronger annual base than they had in early 2025.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest structural supports remains the squeeze in concentrate supply. Reuters-reported coverage says Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on 2026 treatment and refining charges of $0 per metric ton and 0 cents per pound, versus $21.25/tonne and 2.125 cents/lb for 2025. That kind of TC/RC collapse is a strong sign that smelter feedstock remains extremely tight, even when spot copper prices are only rising modestly.
2) Tight concentrate supply is not fully showing up in copper prices because inventories are still a brake
Copper’s near-term problem is that the market is still balancing structural tightness against visible stock pressure. Trading Economics’ March 31 copper page shows the metal recovering, but only modestly, after a weak month. Market coverage around the 2026 TC/RC deal also points to a structurally tight concentrate market, which implies the price is being held back by other near-term pressures rather than a relaxed supply picture. This is an inference from the combination of today’s price action and the concentrate data.
3) Indonesia’s quota cuts are still the main nickel story
Nickel’s core support remains Indonesia’s tighter ore policy. Recent reporting says Indonesia’s 2026 RKAB production quota target is approximately 260-270 million tonnes, down sharply from about 380 million tonnes the year before. Since Indonesia dominates global nickel supply growth, cuts of that size remain one of the market’s most important drivers.
4) Weda Bay made the nickel tightening story much more credible
The tightening story became more tangible when the market focused on Weda Bay, one of the world’s largest nickel operations. Reporting says the output cut there is a centerpiece of Indonesia’s broader strategy to restrain 2026 ore production. That matters because it made the quota story feel more concrete to traders, not just theoretical.
5) Nickel is still more sensitive to broader market mood than copper today
Trading Economics shows nickel falling on March 31 even though Indonesia’s supply story is still supportive. That suggests nickel is more exposed right now to short-term risk sentiment and profit-taking, while copper is being helped by its tighter smelting-chain story. This is an inference from the fact that copper is up today while nickel is down, despite both having supportive supply narratives underneath.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze starts to matter more than the short-term forces that have kept rallies contained. For nickel, traders will keep watching whether Indonesia maintains tighter quotas and whether actual production comes in below even those lower approved levels. If the market shifts back toward supply tightness, nickel could become more volatile than copper again.
Bottom line
On March 31, 2026, copper looks like the steadier market because its concentrate shortage is still supporting prices, while nickel is under more short-term pressure even though Indonesia’s quota cuts remain in place. Copper still has the clearer long-term scarcity story, but nickel remains the more policy-sensitive metal day to day.
