Recorded on January 21, 2026.
In this interview, Steve Yang sits down with political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, known for applying game theory and incentive-driven analysis to real-world politics, conflict, and regime survival. If you’ve ever wondered why leaders make “irrational” decisions that still work politically, this conversation lays out the mechanics behind it—who leaders must keep happy, how coalitions stay loyal, and why credibility in foreign policy is so hard to maintain.
We cover why leaders prioritize staying in power above all else, how democracies and autocracies differ in incentives, why smaller actors sometimes beat stronger ones in war, and how all of this shows up in real headlines—from alliances and deterrence to market reactions.
Key topics covered:
The “winning coalition” and how leaders stay in power
Why leaders protect the few, not the many
Credibility, threats, and why public red lines fail
Why power doesn’t always decide war outcomes
China–Taiwan risk framing and escalation incentives
Democracy fragility and long-run political pressures
Guest links:
NYU profile: https://wp.nyu.edu/brucebuenodemesquita/
Hoover Institution profile: https://www.hoover.org/profiles/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita
Book: The Dictator’s Handbook: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita/the-dictators-handbook/9781549193217/
Host — Steve Yang | Natural Resource Stocks
Website: https://www.NaturalResourceStocks.net
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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thesteveyang/
The opinions expressed are solely those of the guest and do not necessarily reflect those of Natural Resource Stocks.
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