Copper and nickel are moving in opposite directions in the latest public pricing heading into April 1. Trading Economics shows copper at $5.52/lb on March 31, up 0.85% on the day, while nickel was at $17,038.75/tonne on March 31, down 1.65%. The public quotes are still dated March 31 rather than April 1, but they show copper stabilizing while nickel remains under a bit more pressure.
Today’s pricing snapshot
According to Trading Economics, copper is down 6.31% over the past month but still 9.90% higher than a year ago. Nickel is down 0.97% over the past month while still 5.37% higher year over year. That leaves copper under clearer short-term pressure than its annual numbers suggest, while nickel has held a steadier medium-term base despite recent weakness.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest structural supports remains the squeeze in concentrate supply. Reuters-reported coverage says Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on 2026 treatment and refining charges of $0 per metric ton and 0 cent per pound. That kind of TC/RC collapse is a strong sign that smelter feedstock remains extremely tight, even when spot copper prices are only recovering gradually.
2) Copper is not breaking out because visible market pressure is still there
Trading Economics’ copper page shows the metal rising day to day, but still down sharply over the past month. Taken together with the still-tight concentrate market, that suggests copper is balancing a bullish long-term supply story against weaker short-term sentiment and still-heavy visible supply. That is an inference from the current price trend and smelter-fee data.
3) Indonesia’s quota cuts are still the main nickel story
Nickel’s core support remains Indonesia’s tighter ore policy. Argus reported that Indonesia’s 2026 RKAB nickel quota is expected to be cut to about 260-270 million tonnes, and Trading Economics likewise described approved ore quotas in that same range, well below 379 million tonnes last year. Since Indonesia dominates global nickel supply growth, cuts of that size remain one of the market’s biggest drivers.
4) Nickel is still reacting to policy support more than to demand strength
Trading Economics’ nickel coverage says the market’s earlier move toward $17,900/tonne was driven by Indonesia’s confirmation of sharp output cuts for 2026. That matters because it means nickel’s support is still mainly policy-led rather than based on a broad improvement in stainless steel or battery demand.
5) Copper and nickel are being driven by different versions of the same supply story
Copper’s issue is concentrate scarcity flowing through the smelting chain, while nickel’s issue is direct ore restriction from the world’s dominant producer. That is why copper can look steadier while nickel weakens on the day: nickel tends to react faster to Indonesia headlines and shifts in market mood, while copper’s tightness is showing up more gradually. This is an inference from the latest pricing and supply reports.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze starts to matter more than the forces that have kept prices from fully following the tight supply story. For nickel, traders will keep watching whether Indonesia sticks to tighter quotas and whether actual production lands below even those lower approved levels. In both markets, supply remains the main long-term theme.
Bottom line
On April 1, 2026, copper looks like the steadier market because its concentrate shortage is still supporting prices, while nickel is more obviously tied to Indonesia’s quota decisions and day-to-day policy sentiment. Copper still has the clearer long-term scarcity story, but nickel remains the more policy-sensitive metal.
