Recorded on April 14 2026
Steve Yang sits down with Laurent Lequeu of The Macro Butler for a hard-hitting macro conversation on why markets may be dangerously underpricing a much longer Middle East conflict and a far bigger commodity shock ahead. Laurent argues that even if headlines sound calmer, damaged energy infrastructure, displaced shipping routes, and missing industrial inputs could keep oil and supply chains far tighter than most traders expect. He breaks down why fertilizer, helium, sulfuric acid, semiconductors, and mining inputs matter far more than most investors realize, and why those second-order effects could drive food inflation, metals inflation, and broader stagflation. The interview also digs into Red Sea shipping risk, China energy exposure, Taiwan pressure, and the geopolitical chokepoints that could reshape trade flows and commodity pricing. If you follow natural resources, mining, macro strategy, inflation, or geopolitics, this is a wide-ranging discussion on the forces Laurent believes the market still has not fully priced in. Like, subscribe, and ring the bell. #Millettian
Key topics
Why Laurent says the market is pricing peace too early
Why damaged oil and gas assets could keep supply tight
Why he sees oil moving materially higher if conflict restarts
Why fertilizer shortages could hit crops and food inflation
Why helium and sulfuric acid matter for semiconductors and mining
Why the Red Sea remains a major shipping risk
Why China, Iran, and Taiwan matter in this macro setup
Why Laurent sees stagflation risk over the next 12 to 24 months
Guest links
Host Steve Yang Natural Resource Stocks
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Chapters
00:00 Cold open on false peace and oil risk
00:02:17 Show intro and guest welcome
00:02:49 Why Laurent says peace is being priced too early
00:05:48 Why he thinks an agreement remains unlikely
00:09:13 Why he says the US is also confronting China
00:14:03 Oil floor, upside, and escalation scenarios
00:17:10 Fertilizer, helium, sulfuric acid, and mining stress
00:21:06 Red Sea disruption and China energy routes
00:25:15 Iran blockade and Taiwan pressure
00:31:29 Where market stress still is not priced in
00:36:13 Where to find Laurent Lequeu
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