Recorded on May 28 2026 at NRS Studios Andy Millette sits down with Rory Johnston of Commodity Context for a data-driven breakdown of the oil market, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and why crude prices may be failing to reflect the physical drawdown happening underneath the surface. Rory explains why he moved from bearish to bullish, how OPEC’s prior supply strategy created a very different setup before Hormuz, and why the market’s calm may be underestimating record inventory draws. The conversation covers Brent crude, China’s import collapse, hidden stockpiles, strategic petroleum reserves, non-OPEC supply growth, shale economics, Canada, Guyana, Argentina, Brazil, and what investors should watch instead of headlines. Rory also explains why building a global oil balance can help investors understand the process behind price targets, volatility, and commodity market narratives. #Millettian Key topics Rory Johnston’s shift from bearish to bullish on oil Why the market may be atypically calm about Hormuz Record oil inventory drawdowns and global stock deficits China crude imports, mobility data, and hidden inventory draws OPEC supply cuts, non-OPEC growth, and pre-war surplus Brent crude, physical premia, and the risk of price spikes What partial reopening of Hormuz would actually mean Future oil supply from shale, Canada, Guyana, Argentina, and Brazil Why investors should build a global oil balance Guest links Commodity Context https://www.commoditycontext.com/ Commodity Context Substack https://substack.com/@commoditycontext Rory Johnston on X https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Host Andy Millette Natural Resource Stocks Website https://www.NaturalResourceStocks.net YouTube Main https://www.youtube.com/@naturalresourcestocks YouTube World https://www.youtube.com/@NaturalResoureStocksWorld YouTube Clips https://www.youtube.com/@NaturalResoureStocksWorld X https://x.com/theandymillette LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/andymillette/ NRS LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/naturalresourcestocks-net/ NRS Facebook https://www.facebook.com/people/Natural-Resource-Stocks/100090526686713/ NRS TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@natural.resource.stocks NRS Instagram https://www.instagram.com/naturalresourcestocks/ Chapters 00:00 Rory Johnston’s bullish oil market turn 00:52 Rory Johnston introduction 01:32 Brent crude, Hormuz, and oil mispricing 02:57 Record deficits and lost Gulf supply 03:40 OPEC, surplus, and the pre-war setup 05:18 China’s crude import swing 06:34 Mobility data and hidden stock draws 10:44 Is China demand collapsing or sourcing elsewhere 13:53 What should oil investors believe 14:11 OPEC cuts and non-OPEC supply growth 18:32 Surplus stocks versus necessary stocks 19:30 Reserves, inventory, and bullish oil data 21:20 Pace versus level of oil reserves 23:29 Where replacement barrels can come from 27:22 What partial Hormuz reopening means 28:14 Tanker flows, shut-in production, and restart timing 30:11 Future oil supply over the next decade 33:12 Rory’s advice for oil investors 35:04 Where to follow Rory Johnston The content provided by Galt Consulting Group, doing business as NaturalResourceStocks.net, including but not limited to interviews, articles, podcasts, and other digital media, is for informational purposes only. We reserve the right to buy and sell shares of any company mentioned in these communications, including sponsors of the NaturalResourceStocks.net platform. If Galt Consulting Group or any affiliated parties are invested in a company mentioned in our content, we will publicly disclose such investments on all digital platforms, including but not limited to the NaturalResourceStocks YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify. This disclosure will include clear statements indicating whether or not we hold shares in the companies discussed. Nothing in our content constitutes financial advice. Every investor is responsible for conducting their own due diligence and should seek the advice of a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and investments in the stock market can result in the loss of principal. By engaging with our content, you acknowledge that you are fully responsible for your investment decisions and agree to hold Galt Consulting Group, NaturalResourceStocks.net, and its affiliates harmless for any financial losses incurred.c
