Copper and nickel are both lower today as traders take profits after recent strength and reassess global growth, supply, and policy risks. Copper is easing despite continued support from AI/data-center demand, electrification, and Chilean mine disruptions. Nickel is seeing the sharper daily decline as the market waits for Indonesia’s July 31 RKAB quota deadline, which remains the biggest near-term catalyst for nickel supply.
Today’s pricing snapshot
According to Trading Economics CFD benchmarks, copper fell to about $6.30/lb on July 28, 2026, down roughly 0.59% on the day. Copper is still up about 3.35% over the past month and roughly 11.83% year over year, while its all-time high remains $6.67/lb, reached in June 2026.
Nickel fell to about $16,945/metric ton on July 28, 2026, down roughly 1.88% on the day. Nickel is still up about 3.88% over the past month and roughly 10.57% year over year, but today’s decline shows traders are cautious ahead of Indonesia’s next quota decision.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper is lower, but still holding a positive trend
Copper is down today, but the broader trend remains constructive. The metal is still positive over the past month and year over year, which suggests today’s weakness looks more like consolidation than a full breakdown.
The key reason copper continues to attract buying interest is that long-term demand remains tied to power infrastructure, AI data centers, electric vehicles, defense, renewable energy, and broader electrification.
2) Chilean supply disruptions are supporting copper’s bigger picture
Supply risk remains a major copper support. A recent deadly storm in Chile disrupted several major copper operations, including sites connected to Lundin Mining, Antofagasta, and Codelco. The disruption raised fresh concerns about copper supply reliability at a time when demand from AI infrastructure and renewable energy remains elevated.
That matters because Chile is one of the world’s most important copper-producing countries. Any disruption there can quickly affect market sentiment.
3) AI and electrification remain the long-term copper story
Copper’s long-term demand outlook remains strongly tied to the AI and electrification cycle. S&P Global’s Copper in the Age of AI report says copper is essential to electrification, digitalization, AI, data centers, electric vehicles, and defense demand through 2040.
That is why copper can remain well supported even on down days. The market is still pricing copper as a strategic infrastructure metal, not just a traditional construction input.
4) U.S. copper tariffs remain a supply-chain wildcard
U.S. copper tariff policy remains another major factor. The White House said the United States imposed universal 50% tariffs on imports of semi-finished copper products, including pipes, wires, rods, sheets, and tubes, as well as copper-intensive derivative products such as pipe fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection guidance says the 50% Section 232 duty applies to imports of semi-finished copper products and intensive copper derivative products. That keeps U.S. import flows, regional price spreads, and downstream supply chains in focus.
5) Nickel is weaker as traders wait on Indonesia
Nickel is under more pressure today because the market is focused on Indonesia’s supply policy. Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry recently said it would not grant broad additions to the national nickel production quota, aiming to prevent oversupply and support global prices. Eligible mining companies were encouraged to submit pending RKAB revisions before the July 31, 2026 deadline.
SMM also reported that Indonesian domestic smelters consumed 120.6 million wet metric tons of nickel ore from January through June 2026, equal to 46.2% of the 2026 RKAB quota of 260 million–270 million wet metric tons, highlighting weaker downstream demand ahead of the July 31 revision deadline.
What to watch next
Copper traders will be watching COMEX and LME inventories, Chilean mine disruptions, U.S. copper tariff developments, China industrial demand, AI/data-center power demand, grid investment, EV sales, mine-supply updates from Chile, Peru, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, U.S. dollar moves, Treasury yields, and broader risk sentiment.
Nickel traders will be watching Indonesia’s RKAB quota process, the July 31 revision deadline, stainless steel demand, EV battery demand, Class 1 nickel premiums, LME inventories, export-policy headlines, and whether Indonesia continues limiting quota expansion.
Bottom line
On July 28, 2026, copper and nickel are both lower. Copper is easing, but its long-term setup remains supported by AI/data-center demand, electrification, grid upgrades, tight supply, Chilean disruption risk, and U.S. tariff uncertainty. Nickel is seeing a sharper daily decline as traders wait for Indonesia’s RKAB quota deadline and assess whether supply discipline can offset weaker downstream demand.
Copper remains the cleaner long-term structural-demand story, while nickel remains the more supply-policy-sensitive trade today.
