Copper and nickel are moving in opposite directions today. Copper is slightly lower as traders weigh Federal Reserve uncertainty, renewed geopolitical risk, China demand questions, and recent supply disruptions in Chile. Nickel is higher, supported by tightening inventories, Indonesia’s still-important RKAB quota policy, and supply discipline ahead of the July 31 revision deadline.
Today’s pricing snapshot
According to Trading Economics CFD benchmarks, copper traded around $6.31/lb on July 29, 2026, down roughly 0.28% on the day. Copper is still up about 1.88% over the past month and roughly 36.76% year over year, keeping the metal near historically elevated levels.
Nickel traded around $17,140/metric ton on July 29, 2026, up roughly 1.15% on the day. Nickel is also up about 5.09% over the past month and roughly 13.62% year over year, showing that the metal remains supported despite recent volatility.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper is under pressure from macro uncertainty
Copper fell below the $6.30/lb area as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and priced in a meaningful chance of a rate hike. Copper also came under pressure after renewed Middle East tensions pushed oil higher and added another layer of inflation concern to the market.
That matters because copper is highly sensitive to global growth expectations, interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and broader risk sentiment.
2) Copper still has strong long-term demand support
Even with today’s weakness, copper remains supported by a strong long-term demand outlook. The metal is central to clean energy, electric vehicles, grid expansion, AI data centers, power systems, and broader electrification.
Trading Economics noted that copper continues to find support from the global transition to clean energy and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence data centers. That demand story is why copper remains up sharply year over year even after short-term pullbacks.
3) Chilean supply disruptions remain a major copper catalyst
Copper’s downside is being limited by supply risk. Severe storms in Chile have raised concerns about disruptions to copper production in one of the world’s most important copper-producing countries.
A recent Financial Times report said deadly storms disrupted operations at major Chilean copper sites, including mines linked to Lundin Mining, Antofagasta, and Codelco. With copper already benefiting from AI and electrification demand, any Chilean supply disruption can quickly tighten sentiment.
4) Nickel is higher as inventories tighten
Nickel is higher today after recently pulling back from a one-month high. Trading Economics noted that nickel losses had been limited by tighter market conditions, with LME nickel inventories declining for six consecutive sessions.
That inventory drawdown matters because nickel has been dealing with oversupply concerns for much of the past cycle. Falling inventories can help stabilize sentiment, especially when the market is already watching Indonesia’s production policy.
5) Indonesia’s RKAB deadline remains the key nickel wildcard
Indonesia remains the biggest near-term catalyst for nickel. The country’s RKAB quota system has become the dominant policy signal for the market, with the July 31 revision deadline approaching.
Recent market commentary has pointed to Indonesia’s plan to limit broad quota expansion in order to prevent oversupply and support global prices. That keeps nickel highly policy-sensitive. If Indonesia maintains strict quota discipline, nickel may remain supported. If quota approvals expand more than expected, prices could face renewed pressure.
What to watch next
Copper traders will be watching the Federal Reserve decision, U.S. dollar moves, Treasury yields, China industrial demand, Chilean mine disruptions, COMEX and LME inventories, AI/data-center power demand, grid investment, EV sales, U.S. copper tariff policy, and broader risk sentiment.
Nickel traders will be watching Indonesia’s July 31 RKAB revision deadline, LME inventory trends, stainless steel demand, EV battery demand, Philippine ore shipments, Indonesian export rules, Class 1 nickel premiums, and whether policy discipline continues into the second half of 2026.
Bottom line
On July 29, 2026, copper is slightly lower while nickel is higher. Copper is being pressured by Fed uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and China demand concerns, but its longer-term story remains supported by AI/data-center demand, electrification, clean energy, grid upgrades, and Chilean supply disruptions. Nickel is firmer as inventories tighten and Indonesia’s RKAB quota deadline remains the key supply-policy catalyst.
Copper remains the cleaner long-term structural-demand story, while nickel remains the more supply-policy-sensitive trade today.
