In this episode, geopolitical strategist and macro investor David Murrin joins host Steve Yang to break down the world through the lens of long term war and empire cycles. Murrin explains why he believes the West is in the late stages of its current cycle, why entropy is rising across political, financial, and social systems, and how that translates into real world risk for investors and citizens.
Drawing on four decades of professional investing, Murrin challenges the idea of true black swans. He argues that so called surprises are usually the result of bad models and missed signals. Using his Global Forecaster framework, he walks through how power transitions, conflict escalation, and structural imbalances tend to repeat, and why China’s rise, the pressure on the dollar system, and the growing risk of wider war are all part of a predictable pattern.
Murrin and Yang also dig into the role of gold, silver, and commodities in this environment. They discuss why capital is moving into hard assets, why gold and silver can correct with the stock market and then launch much higher, and how debt, money printing, and geopolitical entropy intersect. Murrin shares bold upside views on gold and silver, along with his thinking on the coming commodity supercycle.
Later in the conversation, Murrin describes his Global Forecaster service as an inside out hedge fund style approach where professional managers and engaged individuals can access the intellectual property he developed in his own funds. He explains why investing without a serious understanding of geopolitics and human psychology is, in his words, a form of suicide, and how dark psychology at the leadership level can infect entire systems until they eventually break.
If you care about where the world is going, how power transitions play out, and what that means for markets, this long form #Millettian conversation will give you a very different lens on risk, opportunity, and the decade ahead.
Guest – David Murrin
Website: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/
Host – Steve Yang | Natural Resource Stocks
Website: https://www.NaturalResourceStocks.net
YouTube Main Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@naturalresourcestocks
YouTube Clips Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NaturalResoureStocksClips
X: https://x.com/TheSteveYang
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thesteveyang/
Chapters
Intro and David Murrin’s background and framework
War cycles, entropy, and the decline of Western power
China, the United States, and structural geopolitical risk
Gold, silver, and the coming commodity and resource supercycle
Global Forecaster, psychology, and how to think about risk as an investor
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