Recorded on May 28 2026 at NRS Studios
Andy Millette sits down with Rory Johnston of Commodity Context for a data-driven breakdown of the oil market, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and why crude prices may be failing to reflect the physical drawdown happening underneath the surface. Rory explains why he moved from bearish to bullish, how OPEC’s prior supply strategy created a very different setup before Hormuz, and why the market’s calm may be underestimating record inventory draws. The conversation covers Brent crude, China’s import collapse, hidden stockpiles, strategic petroleum reserves, non-OPEC supply growth, shale economics, Canada, Guyana, Argentina, Brazil, and what investors should watch instead of headlines. Rory also explains why building a global oil balance can help investors understand the process behind price targets, volatility, and commodity market narratives. #Millettian
Key topics
Rory Johnston’s shift from bearish to bullish on oil
Why the market may be atypically calm about Hormuz
Record oil inventory drawdowns and global stock deficits
China crude imports, mobility data, and hidden inventory draws
OPEC supply cuts, non-OPEC growth, and pre-war surplus
Brent crude, physical premia, and the risk of price spikes
What partial reopening of Hormuz would actually mean
Future oil supply from shale, Canada, Guyana, Argentina, and Brazil
Why investors should build a global oil balance
Guest links
Commodity Context https://www.commoditycontext.com/
Commodity Context Substack https://substack.com/@commoditycontext
Rory Johnston on X https://x.com/Rory_Johnston
Host Andy Millette Natural Resource Stocks
Website https://www.NaturalResourceStocks.net
YouTube Main https://www.youtube.com/@naturalresourcestocks
YouTube World https://www.youtube.com/@NaturalResoureStocksWorld
YouTube Clips https://www.youtube.com/@NaturalResoureStocksWorld
X https://x.com/theandymillette
LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/andymillette/
NRS LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/naturalresourcestocks-net/
NRS Facebook https://www.facebook.com/people/Natural-Resource-Stocks/100090526686713/
NRS TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@natural.resource.stocks
NRS Instagram https://www.instagram.com/naturalresourcestocks/
Chapters
00:00 Rory Johnston’s bullish oil market turn
00:52 Rory Johnston introduction
01:32 Brent crude, Hormuz, and oil mispricing
02:57 Record deficits and lost Gulf supply
03:40 OPEC, surplus, and the pre-war setup
05:18 China’s crude import swing
06:34 Mobility data and hidden stock draws
10:44 Is China demand collapsing or sourcing elsewhere
13:53 What should oil investors believe
14:11 OPEC cuts and non-OPEC supply growth
18:32 Surplus stocks versus necessary stocks
19:30 Reserves, inventory, and bullish oil data
21:20 Pace versus level of oil reserves
23:29 Where replacement barrels can come from
27:22 What partial Hormuz reopening means
28:14 Tanker flows, shut-in production, and restart timing
30:11 Future oil supply over the next decade
33:12 Rory’s advice for oil investors
35:04 Where to follow Rory Johnston
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