Copper and nickel are both trading firmer on March 18, but they are being supported by different versions of the same supply story. Trading Economics shows copper at $5.73/lb, up 0.03% on the day, while nickel was recently around $17,428/tonne, with the market still holding onto gains made after Indonesia’s 2026 quota cuts. Copper’s long-term support is still coming from a severe concentrate shortage, while nickel remains more directly tied to Indonesia’s supply restraint.
Today’s pricing snapshot
Trading Economics says copper is down about 0.17% over the past month but still 12.27% higher than a year ago, even after cooling from its January 2026 record high of $6.58/lb. Nickel’s recent tone has been stronger than its day-to-day volatility suggests, with Trading Economics recently reporting prices near $17,900/tonne after Indonesia confirmed materially lower ore quotas for 2026.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest structural supports remains the squeeze in concentrate supply. Reuters-reported coverage says Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on 2026 treatment and refining charges of $0 per metric ton and 0 cents per pound, versus $21.25/tonne and 2.125 cents/lb for 2025. That kind of TC/RC collapse is a strong signal that smelter feedstock is extremely tight, even when copper’s spot price is not breaking sharply higher every session.
2) High visible inventories are still capping copper’s upside
Copper’s near-term problem is that the market can still see a lot of metal in storage. Recent reporting says global exchange inventories across Comex, the LME, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange moved above 1 million tonnes, the first time since 2004. That visible inventory overhang keeps copper from fully pricing in its tight concentrate story and helps explain why the metal has been grinding rather than exploding higher.
3) Indonesia’s quota cuts are still the main nickel story
Nickel’s core support remains Indonesia’s tighter ore policy. Trading Economics reported that Indonesia approved 2026 nickel ore quotas of about 260–270 million tons, down sharply from 379 million tons in 2025, in an effort to curb oversupply and support prices. Since Indonesia dominates global nickel output, quota cuts of that size remain one of the most important market drivers.
4) Weda Bay made the supply tightening much more tangible
The tightening story became more credible after the market focused on a major quota cut at PT Weda Bay Nickel, one of the world’s largest nickel operations. Recent market coverage says the mine’s 2026 quota was cut from about 42 million tonnes to 12 million tonnes, reinforcing the view that Indonesia is serious about restraining supply rather than just guiding prices verbally.
5) Both metals are still balancing tight supply against macro caution
Even with supportive supply-side stories, both metals remain exposed to broader macro sentiment. Copper is still dealing with inventory-related caution, while nickel is vulnerable to swings in industrial-metals risk appetite even as Indonesia tightens supply. The recent London Metal Exchange outage during a volatile period also underscored how jumpy base-metals trading conditions have been this week.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze starts to matter more than the drag from high visible inventories. For nickel, traders will keep watching whether Indonesia maintains tighter quotas and whether actual output comes in below even those lower approved levels. In both markets, the next leg likely depends on whether supply tightness can outweigh still-cautious macro sentiment.
Bottom line
On March 18, 2026, copper looks like the steadier structural story because of its concentrate shortage, while nickel remains the more policy-sensitive metal because Indonesia’s quota decisions still dominate the outlook. Both are supported by tighter supply conditions, but nickel is likely to stay more reactive while copper remains caught between long-term scarcity and short-term inventory pressure.
