I think probably, um,  the Microsoft failure was a cyber attack.

 

It was a dress rehearsal,  probing where the weaknesses are.  Who mounted it? That’s a big question.  I don’t know the answer.  All I, all I can say  Is that company, uh, is known to have had or to have strong relations with the U. S. intelligence community.  So who knows? But it was a dress rehearsal  dress rehearsal. Right? 

 

Yeah, I think that there will be  A proper cyber attack, which will shut down   bank computers, airline computers, national grid computers, hospital computers.  basically shutting down  the entire system.  I think that is a high risk that we will see  before the end of September. 

 

Why before this end of September? Is it because of the election coming up? 

 

 Yeah.  I think that  the group  who control the levers of power behind  the throne  are so desperate  to stop  President Trump.  from regaining the White House,  that they will do  almost anything, if not everything,  to prevent that from happening.  I think it’s safe to say that, um,  the assassination attempt  was an attempt on his life,  and  it’s pretty clear he was a very, very lucky man, in that he turned his head at the last minute. 

 

Otherwise, he wouldn’t be in the race.  Um,  so I think, uh, there are several  options that the powers behind the throne  will attempt.  One is a cyber attack.  Two  is an escalation of the war.  Either or both.  In Europe  and the Middle East,  what we do know and what we have written about since the middle of May  is that in early May, there was a NATO meeting in a Baltic  country  in which the NATO guys told the government representatives that  that we are planning to attack Russia. 

 

So what we heard  just a few days ago  is that part of  Russia’s  preparations  is that they are building prefabricated hospitals right across the country.  What’s that telling you?

 

 I think here in the Middle East,  it’s very likely  that  Israel  overtly or covertly supported by  America  and the UK  will launch a blitz.  against Hezbollah. 

 

What’s interesting  is that the president of Syria,  either, I don’t know whether he’s still there, but has been the last few days in Moscow.  It’s interesting that Assad and Erdogan  are mending fences brokered by Russia. 

 

So  I would not  rule out  the possibility.  It’s not a forecast,  but a high risk  that we will see turmoil  in the Middle East, in the region where I live, namely Dubai. The 

 

consequences, if that does happen,  the consequences are enormous.  I don’t have to spell them out, 

 

but you’ve got a  coalition of forces,  the one side lined up to support Israel, and then the other side lined up  to support  Syria  and indirectly Hezbollah. 

 

Where does this, the implications, even if it’s not war,  the implications on markets,  Again, to be huge.  First of all,  America, if it, if the country is not already in recession  will very soon be in recession.  When you look under the hood of the published data,  which 

 

increasingly a lot of it is increasingly being manipulated.  So  you will have  not a resilient, strong U. S. economy,  but one that is either in or heading into recession.  You can see globally that the services sector,  which has propped up  economic activity in most countries  in the second quarter, is turning over. 

 

And manufacturing,  which, let’s face it.  is  the powerful  sector that provides permanent jobs  and that remains weak and in certainly In recessionary trends,  both in America  and in Europe,  China,  China’s the leadership is more  concerned with stabilizing the economy,  putting a  floor under it,  rather than stimulating it,  it has no wish  to follow the  monetary policies  of the West. 

 

So, focus.  is on  manufacturing,  industry trends,  and from that  we get employment  that follows.  But there’s going to be no real stimulus.  So probably China’s GDP will more or less be the same figure as last year,  might be a little bit less,  unlikely to be,  um,  any better.  So we look at, for China, we look at  nominal GDP, not real GDP, because those numbers are also  Played around with  nominal GDP last year was 4.

 

7%.  I’d expect to be more or less the same this year. 

 

So really what we’re saying is, uh,  between now  and the early months of next year, 

 

the dominating trend will be recession.  And that has huge implications  for a  highly valued.  Equity markets around the world  and we expect  by,  say, March next year  that  equity markets globally will fall, will have fallen by 30 to 40%.  Which of course, of course,  that will shake out the  base metal markets.  So we would expect similar falls  for base metals like copper.

 

On  the other side  of the picture,  we will continue to see gold being bought,  as gold really is.  The safety valve  to tense geopolitics  and  fiat currencies,  I think it won’t be long  before China  will announce  that  its currency  is being supported by  the gold that its citizens own,  which on the last count was 25, 000 tons plus. 

 

Then you have to look at  what is BRICS coming up with.  There’s a paper  prepared by a Russian  and a Chinese economist.  that will be discussed at the BRICS summit meeting in August.  The basis of that paper  is that 40 percent  of the proposed new currency  will be gold,  and 60 percent  will be local currencies. 

 

Of member countries, but linked to gold,  so BRICS  will be  producing a currency  that sees gold coming back into the monetary system of their member countries.  This probably doesn’t happen overnight, it’ll be a step by step approach,  but the trend will be pretty clear.  Now, of course, America  and its allies will hate to see this  because  it completely undermines their own system,  the fiat currency system. 

 

And then what does that do to the dollar? 

 

If you’ve got a  large chunk of the world  not using the dollar  for  trade and investment purposes,  that’s a huge loss of. 

 

So again, it comes back to the original premise  that the people controlling the levers of power in Washington  simply do not want to see  BRICS maturing  into a real rival to their own system. It  comes back.  War. 

 

Yes. I mean, 

 

we’re coming to the end of the American empire,  like most previous empires, they always end in war.  I think the one that  escaped  the war scenario  was Great Britain.  We had the sense to negotiate our way  out of the empire,  but  we’ve been left.  With the sense that we still have it. 

 

So the  real issue, the next issue of course, is what happens 

 

when most of the world is in recession  and we’re seeing these really tense global situations that have either flared up or about to flare up  with the possibility that we will have had a cyber attack  or something even worse. 

 

What’s going to be the response?  We will have a new government in America. The 

 

response  is bound to be  mountains of fiscal  and monetary stimulus.  So what we see evolving  from the early months of next year  into either late 2026 or early 2027,  we have a very inflationary environment  accompanied by  falling dollar.  Rising energy prices and rising food prices,  or the sort of  global inflation that we will see probably 13, 

 

15%,  and in America, not far short of that. The  problem then is,  what will the bond vigilantes do? 

 

And inflation at double digit numbers,  you can see. For instance,  10 year U. S. Treasuries yielding  over 10%.  What does that do  to a highly leveraged system?  We have, so 27, five odd years  of either rolling recessions or depression. 

 

And it’s not until  the early 2030s.  that political heads are not together,  that  debt has been expunged from the system,  that future growth will be based on  productivity.  And as a result,  we then start seeing 

 

20, 30 years or 40 years  of  growth, global growth,  That will average  what we’ve seen the average  was since 1900, which was around 4%.  That’s when we get  The real  bull market, the secular bull market for base metals.  Before then, it’s very volatile.  Down first, then up very sharply, and then crash.  And then it’s the early 2030s, not today,  that the secular bull market starts. 

 

Sorry if I’ve disappointed your listeners. But that’s the way we see it.  

 

You didn’t disappoint me.  Um,  where does  the yen carry trade in Japan come in this calculus?  

 

I’m sorry, you said the carry trade? 

 

Yes. Where does  the yen carry trade come in all of this?  

 

I think it’s part of it.  

 

And is that happening now?

 

I think 

 

this is what an Watanabe is saying, looks around the world  and says, Whoa,  I don’t like what’s happening around there.  I want to put my arms around my own money. So they bring it back home. 

 

I think that’s,  I think that’s much more the case.  Then,  um,  yield differentials between the U S and Japan 

 

expert, but apparently the  big institutions, the big pension funds,  if as, as probably as is very likely to happen, if not this meeting, the following meeting,  the BOJ raises rates to a point where  pension funds can get 1%.  It’ll go for it.  So, but I think the big story is.  Mrs. Watanabe, she looks outside Japan and sees chaos  and says, I want my money back. 

 

And that would further  put pressure on U. S. equities, as well as Yeah, sure.  As well as the bond market.  Yeah.  So,  another question that I have  is You see, and I share your thesis. I think we’re probably already in recession is my thesis,  but  you see strong oil prices going into the new year, or I should say a floor on oil prices work that out for me. 

 

Well, clearly, the Biden administration would like to see weak oil prices in front of the election.  Right.  So the extent to which,  through the derivative markets, that they can prevent oil prices from rising  is a moot point,  but certainly beyond November,  particularly  if we see  the war in the Middle East truly escalating, then we will see  Oil prices  by the end of next year  at 150 to 200.

 

It’s  harsh.  Well, it’s very simple.  If,  which is what Israel wants to do,  and  if not overtly, covertly supported by  the US and the UK,  they launch a hit on Iran.  Iran is already prepared for it.  They’ve mined the Hormuz Straits.  Only needs a click of a button  to shut the straits down.  What does that do to oil prices? 

 

tripple digits.    Yeah.  And what does that do to food prices?  

 

Food prices,  they’re going to be in short supply.  Weather conditions,  particularly. 

 

Already in parts of the world you’re seeing food shortages.   Somebody told me One of the big burger chains,  not selling  meat burgers, chicken burgers,  no beef, 

 

so  we are truly going to see food shortages.

 

 Let’s go back to, um,  the assassination attempt  on, on Trump,  and I had a guest on, a friend on,  right after that happened,  and he said if the  department, the head of the Department of Homeland Security, and the, uh,  if he didn’t resign,  This was a coup,  and if Chito, Chito, Chito, I hope I got her name right, didn’t resign, and she has now, but this was a coup,  and he hasn’t resigned. 

 

And it’s interesting too how,  how quickly we moved on from that story  as a headline in the news.  

 

Yeah.  

 

And my question is,  

 

Do you see another attempt happening, possibly, God forbid, or?  

 

I, as I said right at the start,  powers behind the throne will do everything and anything to stop Trump getting into the White House.  However,  if they tried another attempt on his life, it would be too obvious.  So my conclusion, my guess, it’s not a conclusion, my guess. 

 

is that 

 

either through a cyber attack  or through COVID number two  or war,  the election  won’t be held or will be postponed. 

 

So you really don’t expect 

 

Either there be an election or Trump to be in the White House next year. 

 

If Trump  gets into the White House,  dare I say it, it’ll be almost a miracle. 

 

These guys  will stop, won’t stop at anything. 

 

Why did they try an assassination attempt  in the first place?  It’s a sign of their desperation. 

 

Yeah.  The next question I have, with everything that you said, is  Why, in your opinion, does Israel want to continue to escalate everything?  Are they being prodded by the U. S. and the  

 

No, I think it’s the other way around. I think that 

 

the leadership fears  that if it’s not now,  it will be in the future,  another bigger attempt  to destroy the state of Israel. 

 

So 

 

they are concerned about survival. 

 

And who is the enemy?  Hamas?  Hezbollah? Who it is?  And the head of the snake Iran. 

 

Why did, what was the real reason that Netanyahu went to Washington?  I suspect it was to get  Washington’s support  for a blitz on Hezbollah.  Knowing that this would then bring Iran and Russia into the equation. 

 

So look at it from another point of view.  I’m thinking out of the top of my head. 

 

America  has used, has always used, Israel  as its  centerpiece to 

 

Influence  Israel’s Arab neighbors. 

 

So what if they now see  the UAE  and Saudi Arabia joining bricks?  Saudi starting to accept  oil payment in in currencies other than the dollar  and even in the Yuan  which they immediately convert into gold,  UAE,  also doing small deals,  payment in  not in dollars. 

 

Therein, America’s influence 

 

will disappear. 

 

The Gulf countries  have matured enough  to look after their own affairs.  They don’t want  to be told what to do. 

 

So slowly, step by step,  you’re seeing them breaking away from America. 

 

The big question is,  When do they tell  America, 

 

close down their bases in Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia  and get the hell out of  our countries? 

 

I think that will come,  it’s my guess only,  but that will come  in a big crisis  like this.  The Iran war. 

 

So, an Iran war.  Well, if Israel stroke, America stroke,  UK make a hit on Iran, it’s a war.  

 

 

 

Yeah, you get really, really high  oil prices and you get a lot of People dying. 

 

Think of the economic consequences.  

 

Yeah.  What’s China’s involvement in all of that? 

 

That’s a very good question. 

 

China, 

 

there was recently in Beijing  a meeting  with the PLA, the different factions of the PLA,  representatives from the Gulf countries,  putting forward  a two state solution.  Problem is, from Israel’s point of view, a two state solution  is no go, 

 

absolutely no go. 

 

So,  China  which has big  investments in Iran,  will be part of  the Gulf countries  support  for Iran.  I keep coming back  to when,  in October,  Hamas hit Israel, and in November, MBS and Saudi  held a summit meeting, 

 

and he greeted  first  the president of Iran in open arms,  televised.  And then Erdogan,  that sent, to me anyway, a big message,  which follows, of course,  what China broke in,  but a peace deal between Iran and Saudi. 

 

In all of this,  would China make a move then to Taiwan? Because it seems like  there’s a lot of chaos,  and that’s the time to make a move, right? 

 

I don’t think so. I think only if  America crosses all the lines,  like sending  offensive weaponry  into Taiwan.  Will China make a move? And then it won’t be an attack, it’ll be a blockade. 

 

Why wouldn’t they attack?  What’s holding them back? Because in their eyes, they’d be attacking their own citizens. What  does a blockade do?  Taiwan needs everything imported. Yeah.  And if you’ve got a blockade, you can’t export.  

 

That crashes our economy, obviously, and crashes our economy because we can’t get computer chips. 

 

So, really,  these are my conclusions, but I think you’re alluding to  one needs to have  a lot of gold and a lot of food stored up, correct? Gold,  food,  and water. 

 

And water.  And get the hell out of a city, right? 

 

And the question about  gold is where you store it.  Yeah.  

 

Oh, man.  It’s interesting. I love talking with you,  but I also kind of hate it. 

 

So darn interesting. It’s so stimulating.  It’s like it confirms,  confirms my worst fears.  

 

Yeah. Okay. I don’t, I don’t enjoy putting forward these theses.  But it’s when you put the dots together  that  the conclusion is clear.  Yeah.  What,  what is,  it’s the complete opposite  to what  the consensus is thinking. The titans of the financial community, the banks, the brokers, the funds. 

 

I’m sure some of them  eat it in their bones, but can’t express them. 

 

I think the interesting question is,  what is big  family money doing now? 

 

I don’t know, but I suspect that on every rally they are selling.  What then are they doing with their liquidity? 

 

Where is that going?  And into what?  

 

Precious metals seem to be supported at these prices.  

 

I’m sure that’s one avenue. 

 

I’m sure food is another. 

 

So,  I guess, um,  if there’s one thing,  you gave us so much last time we left. You said, Andy, just  wars escalating, cyber attacks going into recession,  black swans.  Expect the unexpected, because that’s what’s happening. Is  there one thing from now until the end of the year that you would say to be aware of? 

 

The unexpected event,  whether it be a cyber attack  or war,  which creates mayhem  in global markets. 

 

And we already had one. 

 

But then to look at the  optimistic side.  Which is early next year,  when to stop a systemic  collapse,  governments  and  central banks flood the system with liquidity,  and then you will get  more or less a doubling  in  equity indices from where they fall.  In early months of next year, take the S& P 500. We have it down to below 3000. 

 

So  you will see  over six.  By  late 2026 

 

because of all the liquidity. 

 

Yeah. It’s inflation. 

 

Interesting.  I would agree with you.  I’m glad somebody does.  I would know. I can tell you. 

 

Yeah, I do.  It’s um,  it’s interesting. It’s like  trying to look at a 4D chessboard  and see what the next moves are.  

 

I don’t play chess. I don’t know.  

 

Yeah, I do. That’s, that’s what I equate it to.  Well, Simon, um,  we’ll wrap it up then.

 

I’ve taken way too much of your time. I, um, It’s been a pleasure 

 

chatting.  If anybody wants regular updates, I can be.  Contacted on simon  hunt. com.  

 

And you’re very responsive.  You’re very responsive. So I think, I thank you for that. I’ll link to that,  everything in the show notes below this, as well as on the podcast. 

 

Thank you very much indeed. Thank you. Thank you for your time, Simon. Pleasure. Great to chat.  It was my pleasure. Take care.