Copper and nickel are both softer on April 21, though copper is holding up better than nickel. Trading Economics shows copper around $5.97-$6.01/lb, down about 0.44%-1.05% on the day, while nickel is around $18,205/tonne, down 0.16%. That leaves both metals off today, but still well above year-ago levels.
Today’s pricing snapshot
According to Trading Economics, copper is up about 9.8%-10.5% over the past month and roughly 22.4%-23.1% year over year. Nickel is up about 5.84% over the past month and 15.29% from a year ago. Copper remains the stronger annual performer, while nickel has held a steadier but smaller advance.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest structural supports remains the squeeze in concentrate supply. Reuters-reported coverage says Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on 2026 treatment and refining charges of $0 per metric ton and 0 cents per pound. Mining.com also noted spot charges around negative $43, which is an unusually tight signal for smelter feedstock availability.
2) Copper is slipping today despite that tight backdrop
Even with the tight concentrate story, copper is lower on the day in the latest public readings. That suggests the market is balancing long-term scarcity against near-term profit-taking or broader macro caution. That is an inference from the coexistence of the $0 TC/RC deal and today’s weaker copper price.
3) Indonesia’s quota cuts are still the main nickel story
Nickel’s core support remains Indonesia’s tighter ore policy. Argus reported the 2026 RKAB quota is expected around 260-270 million tonnes, and Trading Economics likewise reported approved ore quotas in that same range, well below last year’s 379 million tonnes. Since Indonesia dominates global nickel supply growth, cuts of that size remain one of the market’s biggest drivers.
4) Nickel is still reacting to supply control more than demand strength
Trading Economics’ recent nickel coverage says prices have been supported by Indonesia’s quota cuts and continued production discipline, with the market stabilizing around the $17,000-$18,000/tonne range. At the same time, commentary still points to ongoing oversupply concerns, which helps explain why nickel is only slightly lower today rather than breaking sharply higher.
5) Copper and nickel are being driven by different versions of the same supply story
Copper’s issue is concentrate scarcity flowing through the smelting chain, while nickel’s issue is direct ore restriction from the world’s dominant producer. That helps explain why both metals can remain elevated on a monthly basis even while trading lower on the day. This is an inference from the current price action and the reported supply backdrop.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze starts to matter more than today’s softer price action. For nickel, traders will keep watching whether Indonesia sticks to tighter quotas and whether actual output comes in low enough to offset the wider oversupply narrative. In both markets, supply remains the main long-term theme.
Bottom line
On April 21, 2026, copper looks like the more structurally tight but currently softer market, while nickel remains supported by Indonesia’s quota cuts even as it eases slightly on the day. Copper still has the clearer long-term scarcity story, but nickel remains the more policy-sensitive metal day to day.
