Copper and nickel are both trading higher on March 10, but the drivers are not exactly the same. Copper is being supported by persistent structural supply concerns even after a pullback from January highs, while nickel is trying to stabilize as traders weigh tighter Indonesian supply against still-mixed demand signals from stainless steel and batteries. Latest Trading Economics data shows copper at about $5.87/lb and nickel at about $17,463/tonne, both up on the day.
Today’s pricing snapshot
Copper rose to $5.87/lb on March 10, 2026, up 1.25% on the day, though still about 1.55% lower over the past month after its January record high. Nickel rose to about $17,463/tonne, up roughly 0.19% on the day, but remains about 3.33% lower over the past month. That tells you the near-term bounce is real, but both metals are still digesting earlier volatility.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a structural supply-tightness story underneath it
Even with copper off its January peak, the market is still being held up by concern over longer-term shortages. Trading Economics notes that the red metal continues to find support from the narrative around structural deficits tied to AI data centers, electrification, and defense spending. That bigger-picture demand story has helped keep copper elevated even as inventories and short-term demand swings create volatility.
2) The copper concentrate squeeze is still a major market issue
One of the clearest bullish copper signals remains what is happening in the smelting market. Reuters-reported coverage of Antofagasta’s 2026 benchmark agreement showed treatment and refining charges falling to $0, versus $21.25/tonne and 2.125 cents/lb for 2025. That matters because collapsing TC/RCs usually signal a severe shortage of copper concentrate, which can threaten refined output and keep the market nervous even when headline prices cool.
3) High exchange inventories are capping some of copper’s upside
Copper’s rally is not one-way traffic. Trading Economics says record-high exchange inventories in Shanghai have helped cap gains recently, and Reuters-linked market reporting cited combined exchange stocks topping 1 million tonnes in February as tariff-related flows and softer seasonal Chinese demand fed warehouse builds. So copper is trading inside a tug-of-war: structural tightness underneath, but enough visible inventory to limit runaway upside in the short term.
4) Nickel is still being driven by Indonesia’s supply policy
For nickel, Indonesia remains the dominant story. Trading Economics reported that markets have been adjusting to Indonesia’s 2026 nickel ore quota cuts announced in early February, which reduced permitted output compared with 2025 and initially triggered a sharp rally. Other recent market reporting also points to a 2026 quota range of roughly 260 million to 270 million tonnes, with actual production estimates potentially below that. Since Indonesia is the world’s key nickel supplier, even modest policy tightening can move prices fast.
5) Nickel demand is steady enough to help, but not strong enough to fully break it out
Nickel is also getting some help from underlying stainless steel and EV-battery demand, which Trading Economics cited as part of the rebound story. But unlike copper, nickel still has to prove that demand can absorb supply changes in a durable way. The metal spiked to a 19-month high late last month before cooling, which suggests traders are still willing to bid it up on supply headlines, but not yet ready to price in a fully sustained bull run.
What to watch next
For copper, traders will be watching whether prices can keep recovering without another large inventory build or weaker-than-expected China demand. The most important support remains the concentrate shortage and the still-bullish long-term electrification theme. For nickel, the next big focus is whether Indonesia’s quota tightening leads to a materially smaller ore flow in practice, because that is the variable most capable of turning a rebound into a stronger trend.
Bottom line
On March 10, 2026, copper and nickel are both higher, but for different reasons. Copper is being supported by a deeper structural story around concentrate shortages and future demand from power, AI, and electrification, even as inventories keep the rally from getting too hot. Nickel, meanwhile, is more directly tied to Indonesia’s supply decisions, with tighter ore quotas giving the market support while traders wait to see whether demand can keep up.
I can also make a matching featured image for this copper-and-nickel version in the same style as the platinum/palladium graphic.
