Copper and nickel are trading in a mixed pattern on March 16, with copper stabilizing after last week’s slide while nickel remains under pressure near the low end of its recent range. Trading Economics shows copper at $5.72/lb, up 0.14% on the day, while nickel is around $17,260.50/tonne, down 0.34%. That split suggests copper is finding some support from its longer-term supply story, while nickel is still digesting broader industrial-metal weakness and demand caution.
Today’s pricing snapshot
Copper is still well below its January 2026 record high of $6.58/lb, but it has risen 1.42% over the past month and is up 15.66% year over year, according to Trading Economics. Nickel remains more uneven: Trading Economics says it is up roughly 2.56% over the past month and 5.18% from a year ago, even though it has pulled back in recent sessions.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest long-term supports remains the squeeze in concentrate supply. Reuters-reported coverage says Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on 2026 treatment and refining charges of $0 per metric ton and 0 cents per pound, versus $21.25/tonne and 2.125 cents/lb for 2025. That kind of TC/RC collapse is a major signal that raw material supply is tight even when near-term price action turns choppy.
2) High visible copper inventories are still capping the rally
The reason copper is not reacting more aggressively to that supply tightness is that exchange inventories remain elevated. Reuters-linked reporting says combined copper stocks across Comex, the LME, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed to about 1.012 million tonnes, the first time global exchange inventories topped 1 million tonnes since 2004. That visible inventory overhang continues to cap upside, especially when traders are focused on short-term macro risk.
3) Indonesia’s nickel quota cuts are still the main nickel story
Nickel’s core support remains Indonesia’s tighter ore policy. Reuters- and FT-linked reporting says Indonesia’s approved nickel ore work-plan quotas for 2026 are roughly 260-270 million tonnes, down from about 379 million tonnes in 2025. Since Indonesia dominates global nickel supply, quota cuts of that size remain one of the market’s biggest bullish structural drivers.
4) Weda Bay made the supply tightening story much more tangible
The tightening story got more serious when Indonesia cut the 2026 quota for PT Weda Bay Nickel, one of the world’s largest nickel operations, to about 12 million tonnes from 42 million tonnes in 2025. That sharp cut showed traders the government was willing to restrict supply at major mines, not just talk about broader discipline.
5) Nickel is still facing broader industrial-metal caution
Even with Indonesian supply support, nickel has been dragged lower by broader industrial-metal caution. Trading Economics notes nickel futures fell toward $17,200/tonne in March amid a wider pullback in industrial metals, with rising Middle East tensions, stronger energy prices, and a firmer dollar contributing to a more risk-off tone. That helps explain why nickel can have a constructive supply story and still struggle day to day.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze starts to matter more than the drag from high visible inventories. For nickel, traders will keep watching whether Indonesia maintains tighter quotas and whether actual mine output comes in below those lower approved levels. In both markets, the next move likely depends on whether supply tightness can outweigh macro pressure.
Bottom line
On March 16, 2026, copper is holding up better because its structural supply story is starting to offset last week’s weakness, while nickel remains more vulnerable to short-term risk-off sentiment even though Indonesian policy is still supportive underneath the market. Copper has the steadier near-term tone today, but both metals are still being shaped by the same big theme: tight supply in theory, mixed demand and macro pressure in practice.
