Copper and nickel are both firmer heading into March 17, but they are getting support from different parts of the market. Trading Economics shows copper at $5.72/lb as of the latest March 16 update, up 0.14% on the day, while nickel was at $17,428/tonne, up 0.62% on the day. Copper is being supported by its longer-term concentrate shortage story, while nickel is still reacting to Indonesia’s supply restraint and tighter ore availability.
Today’s pricing snapshot
Copper remains well below its January 2026 record high of $6.58/lb, but Trading Economics says it is still up 1.42% over the past month and 15.66% year over year. Nickel has risen 3.55% over the past month and 6.20% from a year earlier, which shows that even after recent volatility, both metals are still trading off a stronger medium-term base than they had late last year.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest long-term supports remains the squeeze in concentrate supply. Reuters-reported coverage says Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on 2026 treatment and refining charges of $0 per metric ton and 0 cents per pound, versus $21.25/tonne and 2.125 cents/lb for 2025. That kind of TC/RC collapse is a strong signal that feedstock is tight even when the day-to-day copper price wobbles.
2) High visible copper inventories are still capping upside
The reason copper is not moving even harder is that exchange inventories remain a real headwind. Reuters-reported coverage carried by Mining.com says combined stocks on Comex, the LME, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange topped 1.012 million tonnes, the first time global exchange inventories moved above 1 million tonnes since 2004. That inventory overhang helps explain why copper can have a bullish structural story while still struggling to break higher cleanly.
3) Indonesia’s quota cuts are still the main nickel story
Nickel’s core support remains Indonesia’s tighter ore policy. Trading Economics reported that Indonesia approved 2026 nickel ore quotas of about 260–270 million tons, well below 379 million tons in 2025, in an effort to curb oversupply and support prices. That remains one of the most important drivers in the nickel market because Indonesia dominates global supply growth.
4) Nickel is still reacting to a tighter supply outlook after its recent surge
Trading Economics also reported last month that nickel futures hit a 19-month high as traders responded to Indonesia’s decision to slow production growth, with quota cuts described in a similar 250–260 million wet ton range. That earlier rally matters because it shows the market is still primed to respond sharply whenever supply restraint in Indonesia looks more credible.
5) Both metals are balancing bullish supply stories against slower near-term demand signals
Copper’s tight concentrate market and nickel’s Indonesia-driven supply restraint are both supportive, but neither metal is trading in a vacuum. Copper is still facing softer Chinese demand and larger exchange stocks, while nickel is benefiting from tighter supply but remains vulnerable to broader industrial-metal sentiment. That mix is why both metals can be up on the latest session without fully breaking into a straight-line rally.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze starts to matter more than the drag from high visible inventories. For nickel, traders will keep watching whether Indonesia maintains tighter quotas and whether actual mine output lands below those lower approved levels. In both cases, the next leg higher likely depends on supply tightness proving stronger than the market’s current demand caution.
Bottom line
On March 17, 2026, copper and nickel are both being supported by supply-side narratives, but they are not getting there the same way. Copper has the steadier long-term structural case because of its concentrate shortage, while nickel remains more directly tied to Indonesia’s policy decisions and ore quotas. That leaves copper looking more fundamentally tight, and nickel looking more policy-sensitive.
