Copper and nickel are both softer heading into March 23, though copper is taking the clearer hit in the latest public pricing. Trading Economics shows copper at $5.25/lb on March 23, down 1.82% on the day. Nickel’s latest public Trading Economics quote is $16,885/tonne on March 20, down 1.05% on that session, so nickel’s posted market data is lagging copper by a few days.
Today’s pricing snapshot
Copper is down 11.55% over the past month but still 3.78% higher than a year ago, according to Trading Economics. Nickel is down 2.31% over the past month but remains 4.16% higher year over year on the latest available public quote. That leaves copper under more immediate pressure, while nickel still looks somewhat steadier on a medium-term basis despite recent weakness.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest structural supports remains the squeeze in concentrate supply. Reuters-reported coverage says Antofagasta and a Chinese copper smelter agreed on 2026 treatment and refining charges of $0 per metric ton and 0 cents per pound, versus $21.25/tonne and 2.125 cents/lb for 2025. That kind of TC/RC collapse is a strong sign that smelter feedstock remains extremely tight, even when spot copper prices are falling.
2) High visible inventories are still capping copper’s upside
Copper’s near-term problem is that the market can still see a lot of metal in storage. Recent market reporting highlighted global exchange inventories moving above 1 million tonnes, the first time since 2004, and that visible stock overhang helps explain why copper can have a bullish long-term supply story while still selling off sharply in the short term. This is also consistent with Trading Economics’ latest copper price weakness on March 23.
3) Indonesia’s quota cuts are still the main nickel story
Nickel’s core support remains Indonesia’s tighter ore policy. Trading Economics reported last month that Indonesia approved 2026 nickel ore quotas of about 260–270 million tons, well below 379 million tons in 2025, in an effort to curb oversupply and support prices. Since Indonesia dominates global nickel supply growth, quota cuts of that size remain one of the most important drivers in the nickel market.
4) Weda Bay made the nickel tightening story more credible
Nickel’s supply story became more believable once traders focused on major mine-level restrictions. Recent corporate and market reporting tied the Indonesian quota policy to tighter permitted production at PT Weda Bay Nickel, reinforcing the idea that Indonesia is serious about market balance rather than just using verbal guidance.
5) Nickel is now feeling broader risk-off pressure too
Even with Indonesia’s supply restraint, nickel has also been hit by broader industrial-metals caution. Trading Economics reported nickel futures slid toward $17,100/tonne in mid-March, hitting a multi-month low amid rising global risk aversion, higher oil prices, and inflation concerns. That helps explain why nickel can have a supportive supply story and still weaken in the short term.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze starts to matter more than the drag from visible inventories and weak near-term sentiment. For nickel, traders will keep watching whether Indonesia maintains tighter quotas and whether actual mine output stays constrained enough to offset broader macro pressure. In both markets, the next move likely depends on whether supply tightness can outweigh cautious risk sentiment.
Bottom line
On March 23, 2026, copper looks weaker because the market is focusing on visible inventory pressure, while nickel is being pulled between Indonesia’s supportive quota cuts and a broader risk-off backdrop. Copper still has the clearer long-term scarcity story, but nickel remains the more policy-sensitive metal day to day.
