Copper and nickel are both lower on March 24, though copper is seeing the clearer day-to-day pressure in the latest public pricing. Trading Economics shows copper at $5.36/lb, down 1.48% on the day, while nickel is at $16,918/tonne, down 1.64%. Both metals are still being pulled between supportive supply-side narratives and weaker short-term sentiment across industrial commodities.
Today’s pricing snapshot
Copper is down 10.47% over the past month but still 3.00% higher than a year ago, according to Trading Economics. Nickel is down 6.25% over the past month but remains 4.30% higher year over year. That leaves copper under heavier immediate pressure, while nickel is also weakening but still holding a modest longer-term gain.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest structural supports remains the squeeze in concentrate supply. Reuters-reported coverage says Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on 2026 treatment and refining charges of $0 per metric ton and 0 cents per pound, versus $21.25/tonne and 2.125 cents/lb for 2025. That kind of TC/RC collapse is a strong sign that smelter feedstock remains extremely tight, even when spot copper prices are falling.
2) High visible inventories are still capping copper’s upside
Copper’s near-term problem is that the market can still see a lot of metal in storage. Trading Economics says copper remains under pressure even with its longer-term bullish backdrop, and recent market reporting has highlighted exchange inventories above 1 million tonnes, which continues to weigh on sentiment.
3) Indonesia’s quota cuts are still the main nickel story
Nickel’s core support remains Indonesia’s tighter ore policy. Trading Economics reported that Indonesia approved 2026 nickel ore quotas of about 260–270 million tons, down sharply from 379 million tons in 2025, in an effort to curb oversupply and support prices. Since Indonesia dominates global nickel supply growth, quota cuts of that size remain one of the most important drivers in the market.
4) Nickel is still balancing supply restraint against broader risk-off pressure
Trading Economics’ nickel coverage says prices have also been pressured by broader industrial-metals weakness and risk-off flows, even as Indonesia’s tighter quotas constrain full utilization of the country’s nickel processing capacity. That helps explain why nickel can have a supportive supply story and still trade lower.
5) Both metals are now being driven by different versions of the same supply story
Copper’s issue is concentrate scarcity feeding through the smelting chain, while nickel’s issue is direct ore restriction from the world’s dominant producer. That is why copper can still have a bullish structural case but weaken on inventories, while nickel remains highly sensitive to policy and macro sentiment at the same time. This is an inference from the current price action plus the supply and quota backdrop.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze starts to matter more than the drag from visible inventories. For nickel, traders will keep watching whether Indonesia maintains tighter quotas and whether actual output stays constrained enough to offset weaker broader sentiment. In both markets, the next move likely depends on whether supply tightness can outweigh cautious risk appetite.
Bottom line
On March 24, 2026, copper looks weaker because the market is focusing on visible inventory pressure, while nickel is being pulled between supportive Indonesian quota cuts and a broader industrial-metals pullback. Copper still has the clearer long-term scarcity story, but nickel remains the more policy-sensitive metal day to day.
