Copper and nickel are moving in opposite directions on April 28. Trading Economics shows copper at $5.93/lb, down 1.52% on the day, while nickel is at $19,338.25/tonne, up 1.04%. That leaves copper softer today, while nickel is continuing to outperform in the latest session.
Today’s pricing snapshot
Over the past month, copper is up 8.28% and 23.23% year over year, according to Trading Economics. Nickel is up 11.62% over the past month and 23.73% from a year ago. So even with copper down on the day, both metals are still trading well above where they were a year earlier, and nickel has the stronger one-month move right now.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest structural supports remains the squeeze in concentrate supply. Reuters-reported coverage says Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on 2026 treatment and refining charges of $0 per metric ton and 0 cents per pound, versus $21.25/tonne and 2.125 cents/lb for 2025. That kind of TC/RC collapse is a strong sign that smelter feedstock remains extremely tight, even when the copper price is slipping on a given day.
2) Copper is easing today, but it is still near elevated levels
Trading Economics says copper remains up more than 23% year over year, and its page notes the contract was updated on April 28. With copper having recently traded near record territory earlier in 2026, today’s decline looks more like a pullback inside a still-elevated market than a breakdown in the longer-term story. That final point is an inference from the latest price level and yearly gain.
3) Indonesia’s quota cuts are still the main nickel story
Nickel’s core support remains Indonesia’s tighter ore policy. Recent reporting says Indonesia’s 2026 nickel quota is around 260–270 million tonnes, down sharply from 379 million tonnes approved for 2025. Since Indonesia dominates global nickel supply growth, cuts of that size remain one of the biggest reasons nickel prices are staying supported.
4) Nickel is benefiting from supply discipline more than copper is today
Trading Economics shows nickel rising more than 1% on April 28 while copper is falling. That split fits the broader market story: nickel is getting direct help from quota-driven supply discipline, while copper’s tightness is showing up more through smelter economics than through a clean day-to-day rally. This comparison is an inference from the latest price action plus the reported supply backdrop.
5) Both metals are still well above year-ago levels, but nickel has the better short-term momentum
Copper and nickel both have strong annual gains, but nickel’s latest monthly increase of 11.62% is higher than copper’s 8.28%. That suggests nickel currently has the stronger short-term momentum, while copper still looks like the more structurally tight metal because of the concentrate shortage.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze starts pushing the market higher again after today’s pullback. For nickel, traders will keep watching whether Indonesia sticks to tighter quotas and whether actual output stays constrained enough to reinforce the current rally. In both markets, supply remains the key long-term theme.
Bottom line
On April 28, 2026, copper is softer, but its long-term tight-supply story is still intact. Nickel is stronger on the day and has better short-term momentum, mainly because Indonesia’s supply discipline is still front and center for the market.
