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Andy Millette: John Williams, how are you?
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PopPop: Fine. Thank you, Andy. How are you doing.
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Andy Millette: I’m doing great at first, st just want to. As I said, off camera, I just thank you for coming on, and I just want to acknowledge that, and say that again on camera.
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Andy Millette: Thank you so much for coming on. I am a huge fan, and have been for a couple of decades, and it’s just great to have you on here and look at the true. If you would measurements
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Andy Millette: of monetary growth and talk about monetary policy. So
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Andy Millette: let’s get into it here.
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Andy Millette: So for listeners that don’t know, or viewers that don’t know. John, how do you calculate, or how do you come up with your calculations. If you could give me a 30,000 foot view.
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PopPop: What I do. W. What you have to understand is that the government pleas with its numbers? That’s generally no surprise to me.
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Andy Millette: Yeah, right.
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PopPop: Lot of it’s been open. A lot of it has been subterfuge.
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PopPop: Just looking at the open numbers when you get into things, such as the Consumer. Price Index.
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PopPop: the general, the the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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PopPop: which publishes it, redefined the Cpi. Going back in about 1982 changing the methodologies.
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PopPop: This was at the insistence of Congress. What had happened
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PopPop: was that you’d had a very high Cpi number
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PopPop: coming out of 1982 and the 1983, excuse me, was
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PopPop: out of the the Cpi back in 98 and 81. But it it meant that these Cpi was going to jump. It’s gonna be big boost in the
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PopPop: a
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PopPop: social security payments.
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PopPop: And people in Congress realized. Gee, we’re not going to be able to have as much deficit spending as we want, and that really upset them.
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PopPop: So they took direct action to bring down the headline Inflation. And what did they do to bring it down.
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PopPop: They didn’t actually lower
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PopPop: inflation. What they did is they lowered headline inflation by redefining it.
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PopPop: They called in Catherine Abraham, who is the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and say, Hey, hey, look! If you can find a way to calculate the inflation this way.
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PopPop: we might be able to find more money for the Bureau of Labor Statistics
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PopPop: that happened that was at that said of her memoirs.
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PopPop: I kid you not
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PopPop: so the
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PopPop: What they did was they? They
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PopPop: redefined elements of the consumer price index.
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PopPop: And in that that one change, the changes that they made for that initial
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PopPop: 1982, 1983 period knocked at one and a half percentage points off what had been the traditional headline inflation going back into the
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PopPop: 20 teens
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PopPop: when they started publishing the Cpi
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PopPop: and
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PopPop: going forward.
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PopPop: they
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PopPop: that they
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PopPop: change, or the the numbers changed.
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PopPop: If you’re an accountant, you’d have generally accepted accounting principles and show what the old numbers were. The new numbers were. They didn’t do anything like that.
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PopPop: that they? They just lowered the inflation, and they kept modifying the Cpi over time.
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PopPop: Now, the one thing that the Bureau of Labor Statistics did, which I
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PopPop: will at least tip my hat to them on
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PopPop: is that whenever they made a change
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PopPop: year or 2 later they publish the details on it, and they’d say, Here
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PopPop: we made this change.
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PopPop: and this is how much it reduced the Cpi byte.
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PopPop: So what I did was I took their changes and their estimates of what it affected, and I added it back in.
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PopPop: so that I’ve estimated the Cpi as it would have been
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PopPop: had it been that was reported today. The same way. It had been reported 1981, before they started making orbits changes
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PopPop: the
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PopPop: I mean, it’s really criminal, and is, it’s it’s again completely against accounting principles. If such we’re held to the
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PopPop: reporting of the government statistics, but they’re but they’re not.
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PopPop: And
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PopPop: right now, where that that 1st change, not one and a half percentage points off the Cpi.
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PopPop: the aggregate understatements about 8 percentage points.
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PopPop: So that where you had.
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PopPop: if you look at the most recent reporting.
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PopPop: you’re looking at the Cpi
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PopPop: that year over year.
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PopPop: about about 3 percentage points
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PopPop: 3.0.
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PopPop: If you
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PopPop: excuse me, I’m sorry. That’s the Gdp 2, 2 instances number. Looking at my wrong comment. The Cpi was 3.3,
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PopPop: and that was level with the the month before.
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PopPop: My estimate, which adds back in all the changes that they’ve made was up at 11.1%.
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Andy Millette: Let me interrupt you. So what you’re telling me is that the Cpi, according to the old numbers and the the numbers that you’re going on. Now that
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Andy Millette: 1981 numbers are correct. Me, if I’m wrong. And pre, 1981, we would have a Cpi of oh, just over 11%. Is that correct?
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PopPop: The the at the the ones in 1981 be before before they started adjusting it. The numbers were okay, but afterwards.
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PopPop: So what I’m saying is, yeah.
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PopPop: a
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PopPop: where you were looking at. We’re we’re there.
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PopPop: You’re you’re you’re about 8 percentage points higher
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PopPop: than what they’re reporting.
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Andy Millette: That’s what I want to know. So whatever the reporting
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Andy Millette: add on 8 percentage points, and that’s would be
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Andy Millette: more of a true read of what inflation is.
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PopPop: And this is this.
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PopPop: this is this is not just playing games. If you happen to be retired, and on social security
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PopPop: the social security payments are adjusted.
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PopPop: Part of the Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers.
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PopPop: not what they would have been had they not played games with it.
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PopPop: and that’s a whole reason that they played the games with it was to
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PopPop: keep the social security payments suppressed
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PopPop: so they could spend the money elsewhere, that I mean that they am referring to. Here is the Us. Congress.
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Andy Millette: Yeah.
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PopPop: That was, that was the entity that changed this.
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Andy Millette: Wow! So it immediately think of my parents who are on social security.
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Andy Millette: and how this has affected them. And why.
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Andy Millette: yeah, it’s hard for them to make ends meet with the retirements that they have. And then so securities to supplement that it’s because inflation’s at about 11%. Currently
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Andy Millette: I had a great conversation with Mark Faber, and
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Andy Millette: he didn’t know that I was going to interview you, and he brought you up, and if you’re familiar with Mark Faber.
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PopPop: Yes.
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Andy Millette: And he wanted me to ask you cause he thought you had a great chart of the price on gold
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Andy Millette: relative to the real rate of inflation. Can you talk about that? If you would.
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PopPop: Sure.
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PopPop: What I I do, and I’m sorry I don’t have a visual to show you this
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PopPop: as we’re talking here.
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PopPop: I do plot
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PopPop: a plot of the old
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PopPop: Cpi.
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PopPop: Excuse me, the the current Cpi, which is nice and
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PopPop: but not going much above 3%.
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PopPop: And the the way it would be
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PopPop: if it had. That was reported the way it had been before. And it’s and it’s and it’s exponential.
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PopPop: And
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PopPop: Gold is really your best measure of inflation over time over history.
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PopPop: I’ve I’ve
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PopPop: plotted gold over a couple of 1,000 years and different inflation estimates, and generally it holds pretty close to inflation.
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PopPop: And coming into the 1980 S. Period, it was
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PopPop: you had gold, and and the Cpi, pretty much moving together is purely coincidental
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PopPop: as in terms of the the numbers and the level.
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PopPop: But then, when the the government starts
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PopPop: putting the brakes on or reporting the headline Inflation, you find that the that the gold starts
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PopPop: rising against against the Cpi.
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PopPop: And what has happened is that the
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PopPop: the latest gold.
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PopPop: recent highs
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PopPop: still a little shy of my numbers, but very, they’re just closing in on my Cpi estimates.
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PopPop: and anyone who’d like a copy of that graph, including yourself or any of your viewers, you’re most welcome to it. Just send me an email, John williams@shadowstats.com.
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PopPop: I’ll be happy to send it to you because it shows
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PopPop: it it it I’ve
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PopPop: it always gave me a little comfort to know that I was doing something right with my numbers, because the actual inflation and gold stayed together.
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PopPop: and that was
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PopPop: That tells you something about goal, about inflation and about gold, because gold is an inflation hedge has been historically.
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PopPop: and it didn’t.
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Andy Millette: It. Really, it’s really quite. Don’t interrupt you. It’s really quite remarkable. But yet also expected. If that makes sense.
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PopPop: Well.
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PopPop: people people know how they’re doing. You can’t fool.
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PopPop: Yeah, I’m I’m not doing well, what? What’s wrong here? I’m not making the money you used to make. Well, you should have been if you if you were into social security that was being adjusted with the
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PopPop: the Cpa. But then all of a sudden, the Cpas
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PopPop: been cut
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PopPop: you’re not making.
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PopPop: and
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PopPop: lot of people recognize it.
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Andy Millette: Yeah. Now.
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Andy Millette: off camera. We talked a little bit about the explosion of the money supply specifically
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Andy Millette: right before Covid or during Covid, if you would.
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Andy Millette: I’d like to talk about that. What happened then and then the current inflation
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Andy Millette: that we’re having.
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Andy Millette: If you could help
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Andy Millette: myself and our listeners and viewers wrap our heads about that because it is, can be confusing. Why are we?
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Andy Millette: And seeing so much inflation.
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PopPop: 2 or 3 stories here in terms of what’s happening with inflation.
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Andy Millette: Yeah, let’s talk about.
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PopPop: The the
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PopPop: you see, inflation up
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PopPop: 3%, or whatever it is. Right now.
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PopPop: Actually, I do have the
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PopPop: the latest number in in May was up 3.3% year over year. That’s a headline inflation.
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PopPop: the. Again, the the Cp, they, the government, started playing games with a Cpi redefining it to suppress it.
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PopPop: But
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PopPop: The markets! You have different measures of inflation.
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PopPop: and
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PopPop: it is,
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PopPop: if you just for my numbers
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PopPop: and what they took out of the Cpi, you’ll find that the
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PopPop: Cpi were tracked gold over. Time moved with gold.
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PopPop: Gold is a hedge against inflation. It’s probably holding physical gold is probably the best bet that you have
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PopPop: to preserve your wealth
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PopPop: and keep it stable over time, despite any interventions that come occasionally in the gold markets and such.
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PopPop: You look at it against inflation over time. It’s
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PopPop: absolutely absolutely the best, because it
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PopPop: it reflects the debasement of the currencies that the currency debases
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PopPop: the the the gold price rises.
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PopPop: and
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PopPop: and the the latest numbers that came out for May.
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PopPop: The headline Cpi was at 3.3%.
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PopPop: My number was 11.1%.
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Andy Millette: That’s crazy.
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PopPop: That’s you. That’s year over year inflation.
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PopPop: And if you plot I if you plot my
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PopPop: index, which is coincident with a Cpi
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PopPop: up up until 1,982, and then it. Then it starts to move a little higher as
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PopPop: they they keep redefining the series. But they didn’t just make with one redefinition. They made redefinition after redefinition.
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PopPop: It really is criminal.
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PopPop: but the so the so the Cpa flattens out
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PopPop: historically, but in in
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PopPop: in reality the way it was, for
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PopPop: it’s beginning to pick up exponentially.
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PopPop: And
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PopPop: that’s what you that’s that’s 1 reason you’re seeing the higher gold prices, the gold. Higher gold prices
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PopPop: do reflect the underlying inflation reality.
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PopPop: The people looking at that know what’s happening
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PopPop: and it’s reflecting. So it is. It acts as a
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PopPop: an instrument for maintaining the the constant purchase value of the Us. Dollar
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PopPop: yeah. Valued in us sellers.
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Andy Millette: Let’s talk about the money supply
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Andy Millette: and what happened
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Andy Millette: during Covid with the money supply.
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PopPop: Well, that was the
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PopPop: The fed is owned by the banking system.
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PopPop: Its primary function is to keep its
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PopPop: banking system members afloat. They can’t let the banking system fail.
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PopPop: At least, that’s
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PopPop: my conclusion. After watching their actions over a lengthy period of time.
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PopPop: They’re they’re not
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PopPop: they. They. They make the changes to keep the banking system from collapse.
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PopPop: which has been a danger over
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PopPop: over time
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PopPop: and what? The with the higher inflation?
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PopPop: They, of course, raised interest rates, and they’re keeping interest rates high. Well.
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PopPop: the banks
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PopPop: may have had their profit margin structured at the lower interest rate, but you get the higher interest it could.
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PopPop: They can eventually structure higher profit margins.
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PopPop: The
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PopPop: the the liquidity has
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PopPop: has moved away from the
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PopPop: we’re, you’re, you know, dealing with just a you know, a couple of percentage points. Now, now, you’re seeing interest rates up around
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PopPop: and 9, 8, 9%
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PopPop: in in some areas, or at least at least that growth in the money supply, which is just that’s where it’s going.
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PopPop: You also have a
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PopPop: a Federal government that is
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PopPop: working against the system here
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PopPop: with its fickle deficit.
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PopPop: You’ve got 2 2 big factors that are hitting hitting inflation. Right now
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PopPop: one is the growth in the money supply, and the other is the growth of
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PopPop: debt creation that’s not funded
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PopPop: by the Federal government. Both are at record highs.
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Andy Millette: Got it, and that’s what.
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PopPop: And they’re expanding rapidly.
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Andy Millette: And that’s where this liquidity is coming from. Is that correct? From the money.
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PopPop: Well, the money supply and the
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PopPop: the the the government’s
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PopPop: just just keep spending pumping money into the system as well.
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PopPop: so that you have
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PopPop: that those areas are are moving the underlying inflation
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PopPop: to to a higher level.
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PopPop: The official recession. Excuse me. The inflation. Official inflation numbers
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PopPop: still reflect depressed inflation.
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PopPop: because that’s already built into the
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PopPop: to the government’s numbers.
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PopPop: But right now
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PopPop: I’m getting inflate. I’ve I’ve got inflation. If I’ve mentioned this already. Please excuse me.
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PopPop: But for the month of
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PopPop: month of May, just recently reported where the Cpi was up 3.3% year over year. And that actually
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PopPop: was even with a month before and down from 3.5%
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PopPop: in in March. But
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PopPop: the long string of months before that
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PopPop: my, the measure of the the money supply
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PopPop: is up 11.1%
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PopPop: that now that stem from 11.2%
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PopPop: the month before. But it’s a
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PopPop: the the month before that was 11.3, which was a multi-year high.
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PopPop: and that is what that’s showing you. There is that you’ve got
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PopPop: serious
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PopPop: major inflation
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PopPop: ahead of you. You have money supply in that
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PopPop: that that level you’ll tend to get.
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PopPop: you know, get inflation moving up in that direction.
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PopPop: So I look for the inflation headline and inflation rate, even though it’s suppressed by a lot of gimmicks
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PopPop: to to move
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PopPop: higher, you know, by at least a couple of percentage points in the next
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PopPop: next couple of months. It’s it’s it’s on its way higher. It’s not. Gonna
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PopPop: it’s not gonna sink.
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Andy Millette: Okay. So I wanna just recap what you just said. So I’m clear, is the money supply, which is really what’s
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Andy Millette: what’s pushing inflation higher
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Andy Millette: that has been constant.
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Andy Millette: constantly high.
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Andy Millette: and that is to you as an indicator.
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Andy Millette: That’s going to say that inflation more inflation’s coming.
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Andy Millette: and at the very best inflation isn’t going anywhere, meaning that’s not a positive outcome. But that’s just inflation is going to stay with us.
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Andy Millette: And the worst
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Andy Millette: it’s going to get. It’s going to get even worse is that.
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PopPop: It is. That’s that’s correct, although.
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PopPop: and just a minor issue with it. But somebody said, earlier it has been the money supply has continued to be to
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PopPop: to have been increasing here, and I’m looking for
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PopPop: some
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PopPop: increase in the headline Cpi
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PopPop: beyond where we are now.
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PopPop: But yes, it’s gonna
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PopPop: wherever they are able to hold it.
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PopPop: It’s it’s it’s not coming down for well, and it’s gonna continue to try as long as the
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PopPop: money supply is
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PopPop: exploding, and
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PopPop: it still is.
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Andy Millette: Yeah. So I think there’s such a key point
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Andy Millette: in an interesting point. So it really doesn’t matter.
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Andy Millette: I don’t want to say it doesn’t matter, but
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Andy Millette: it’s if the money supply
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Andy Millette: maintains this.
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Andy Millette: This elevation.
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Andy Millette: Whether the fed raises or not doesn’t make a whole lot of difference in inflation coming down.
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Andy Millette: Is that a correct thing to say.
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PopPop: That’s that’s correct, because the the inflation, the
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PopPop: if the fed doesn’t
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PopPop: act.
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PopPop: The fact that you have the
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PopPop: the the money supply growth is so high that’s going to fuel higher inflation. That’s whatever the fed does here, they’ve already created the inflation
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PopPop: and the higher inflation will drive interest rates higher.
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Andy Millette: Got it. So
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Andy Millette: it sounds to me we’re looking in. We’re looking at a world with higher interest rates, and yet also higher inflation.
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Andy Millette: Is that what they’re.
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PopPop: They do tend, they do tend to go together, and
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PopPop: the
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PopPop: inflation numbers are being understated. And
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PopPop: so the related interest rates
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PopPop: likely or below what?
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PopPop: So a lot of the market rates will be below. What you need to actually gain against it.
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PopPop: What does gain against it is is the physical gold, and such.
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Andy Millette: Right up.
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PopPop: Oh, over time. I mean that that gets clobbered by the intervening authorities.
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PopPop: But over time that’s as I’ve seen. It’s the best assets.
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PopPop: If you hold it.
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PopPop: don’t worry about the fluctuations. Just hold it over time.
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PopPop: You’ll end up whole in the end.
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PopPop: It’s it’s it’s the one it’s the one
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PopPop: metal that I’ve seen that just
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PopPop: I’m trying to attract all the rest.
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PopPop: It it it does maintain its purchasing power
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PopPop: against the actual inflation.
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PopPop: It can be knocked around a lot, but over over time
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PopPop: it’ll it’ll save you.
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Andy Millette: Yeah, I mean, there’s so much implications of what you just said. And I’m so grateful that you pointed out that way because it makes a lot of sense.
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Andy Millette: Well, things make more sense now
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Andy Millette: the reasons why
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Andy Millette: they are. If you would, you got a fed that’s
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Andy Millette: rapidly raising rates, or has rapidly raised rates.
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Andy Millette: and yet inflation hasn’t come down. And really what you’re saying isn’t. I think it’s a point that’s right on.
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PopPop: Yup!
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Andy Millette: Doesn’t really matter. It’s because.
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PopPop: So let me finish by the same.
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Andy Millette: Wife.
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PopPop: The fed.
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PopPop: The fed doesn’t necessarily speak the truth
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PopPop: when when they they know exactly what they’re doing.
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PopPop: Yeah, they’re they’re raising. They’re raising the rates to kill inflation.
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PopPop: That’s that’s the story. We’re we’re raising rates. It’s good. It’s gonna slow down the economy and bring down inflation. It’s not the economy driving inflation. It’s the money supply.
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Andy Millette: It’s the money supply.
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PopPop: Because the banks need the retail. It has nothing to do with controlling the inflation. Inflation is being driven by the money supply.
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Andy Millette: Got it, and it also makes sense. Why so much money is, if you would. I’m assuming all this money from the money supply made its way into the stock market. So that’s why you have such high equity prices
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Andy Millette: relative to
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Andy Millette: a slowing economy. Is that correct?
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PopPop: That’s correct. That’s a good point.
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Andy Millette: Interesting.
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Andy Millette: Yeah.
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Andy Millette: I wish we had a chart of the money supply, because that well, maybe I don’t wish we did, because it probably.
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PopPop: Well, I’m yeah, I will. I will! I will! I will provide you with one.
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Andy Millette: Yeah, if you would, that would be great. Now put it in the story. Now, let’s speculate a little bit. Is a lot of this have to do with also the election. The coming election coming up is that the fed? If you would, once
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Andy Millette: wants to keep liquidity, so nothing would happen
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Andy Millette: before an election.
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PopPop: Oh, they they certainly have done that in the past.
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PopPop: Yeah.
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PopPop: I don’t know how they’re
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PopPop: druthers. Go at the moment.
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PopPop: but the
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PopPop: if you want to keep the incumbent in office, you want a strong economy. If you want to replace him, you want a weak economy.
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Andy Millette: Right.
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PopPop: Of
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PopPop: that, whatever the
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PopPop: intentions are.
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PopPop: I’m looking for a very weak economy with very high inflation.
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PopPop: In the year ahead you should be, seeing that by the inflation, by the excuse me by the election.
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PopPop: Which is that? Gonna be
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PopPop: good for the incumbent party?
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PopPop: But it’s not going to be as bad as it’ll be.
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PopPop: you know. Another another 6 months later.
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Andy Millette: Right.
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Andy Millette: So
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Andy Millette: do you ever see the bet? And I don’t see the fed, but the powers that be, or I guess we could say the fed, the powers that be
365
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Andy Millette: squeezing the money supply if you would, or taking taking m. 1 down or is that
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Andy Millette: if they do that with the whole.
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Andy Millette: the whole thing fall apart.
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PopPop: No, they they did they? Well, they they do. It’s a i mean, it’s a
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PopPop: you. You weaken the growth, you tend to weaken the economy. You also tend to bring down some pressure on inflation.
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PopPop: It goes. It goes both ways, and the money supplied
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PopPop: does it? Does. It does go up and down, but generally the trend, particularly
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PopPop: since you’ve had the instabilities of the pandemic
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PopPop: have been to
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PopPop: flood the system. I mean again, when would that when the
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PopPop: pandemic hit
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00:24:34.290 –> 00:24:39.550
PopPop: they flooded 30 years worth of monetary stimulus into the system.
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Andy Millette: Let’s be honest.
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PopPop: Those 1st couple of months, and it was still there
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PopPop: when they, when we went into the year ahead
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PopPop: march of 2023, and and what they said is, where were the they looked at the money supply numbers and
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PopPop: a basic m 1 was up a hundred 20%
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PopPop: on a year-over-year basis, said, Oh! And people were moaning and groaning about all this terrible stimulus, they said, but look at it now, now we’re only at the 3 4%.
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PopPop: But that’s only because it was. It went over the year. The year to year
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PopPop: shifted
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PopPop: to the
386
00:25:15.320 –> 00:25:22.340
PopPop: year ago that had the big surge. It wasn’t that they drained the the money supply out of the economy.
387
00:25:22.530 –> 00:25:28.059
PopPop: but the press picked up on that. No, you know, the money supply grows only 3, 4% year over year.
388
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PopPop: but they forget about the elephant in the bathtub there. So
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PopPop: it is. It’s it’s still extraordinarily
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PopPop: inflationary.
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00:25:38.760 –> 00:25:40.870
PopPop: And if you take. If you take that.
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PopPop: The money created there was an unprecedented
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PopPop: and
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PopPop: It’s
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PopPop: It’s still fueling the inflation.
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Andy Millette: Yeah.
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PopPop: They? They? They don’t have. They can’t take it out. They’ve got it in there.
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PopPop: but now they’re they have that they’re they’re in a delicate
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00:26:01.840 –> 00:26:03.090
PopPop: circumstance.
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PopPop: and
401
00:26:06.140 –> 00:26:09.719
PopPop: maybe they’re your your numbers will
402
00:26:10.530 –> 00:26:15.260
PopPop: convince people to bring some rates down. But I think you’re gonna have into high interest rates for a long time.
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Andy Millette: Interesting.
404
00:26:17.820 –> 00:26:22.389
Andy Millette: yeah, I guess it’s like it. If I would summarize all this, it’s
405
00:26:23.090 –> 00:26:24.789
Andy Millette: it’s almost like they
406
00:26:24.880 –> 00:26:26.949
Andy Millette: opened up Pandora’s box.
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Andy Millette: and they can’t put it back in. And so we are basically living are going to be living for the foreseeable future at a time of
408
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Andy Millette: relatively high inflation relative to
409
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Andy Millette: the decades and the years and decades of the past, correct.
410
00:26:45.440 –> 00:26:47.399
PopPop: Yeah, that’s that’s a great analogy.
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Andy Millette: Wow! I don’t know what to do with all of that.
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Andy Millette: huh!
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Andy Millette: Yeah. Where do we go from here? So what would your what would your advice be? And then I’m not saying, just buy gold. But what would you say?
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PopPop: The in terms of the
415
00:27:13.000 –> 00:27:15.669
PopPop: but we’ve got. There are all sorts of problems.
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00:27:16.160 –> 00:27:20.259
PopPop: Yeah, none of that. None of them are good for the average consumer.
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PopPop: which is why I mean
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PopPop: number one.
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PopPop: Hold the physical gold batting down the hatches.
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PopPop: the changes that they’ll make to the extent they pull things back. They can
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PopPop: contract the economy. They could collapse. The economy
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Andy Millette: Do you think they’d do that, though?
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PopPop: They tighten things up enough. Yes, they can. They have in the past.
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Andy Millette: Yeah, it’s true.
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PopPop: It’s
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PopPop: exactly where they’re gonna go with this I don’t know. It’s there. Let me put it this way.
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PopPop: and and this is, if you look at their motivation, maybe gives you a little bit of
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PopPop: Larry.
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PopPop: In my view, the Fed’s primary function is keeping the banking system afloat. They don’t care too much about the rest of it.
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PopPop: Right? I mean they
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PopPop: they’re they’re not. It’s not a
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PopPop: they’re not elected by
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PopPop: the public, although the elected officials do
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PopPop: eventually replace him, or
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PopPop: soldier
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PopPop: politicians would like to have a strong economy and lower low inflation.
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PopPop: There’s nothing that the Fed is doing here that’s going to accomplish that.
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PopPop: So there, you may see some conflict.
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Andy Millette: I’m not laughing because it’s funny. I’m laughing because I’m so afraid.
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Andy Millette: Yeah, yeah.
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Andy Millette: yeah, that’s crazy.
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PopPop: Yeah, they’re raising interest rates which kills the economy.
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PopPop: And they at the same time
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PopPop: they’re
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PopPop: money supply
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PopPop: is that, you know, 35 year
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PopPop: highs in terms of growth up a hundred 28% against the pre pandemic level with the the basic and one which is your most liquid.
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PopPop: And that’s that’s driving inflation.
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Andy Millette: So it’s a worst of both worlds. High inflation, weak economy.
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PopPop: Yeah.
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Andy Millette: Yeah.
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Andy Millette: Well, John,
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Andy Millette: I think we should probably end there. But I wanna say again.
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Andy Millette: I am such a big fan of yours and the work that you’ve done and the work that you do. I just want to really encourage you to keep it up.
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PopPop: Thank you. Thank you so much.
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PopPop: I will make sure I will send you.
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PopPop: I’ll send you some charts that may be. Use usable with your
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PopPop: clients here that
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PopPop: explain a little bit of what we’ve been discussing.
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Andy Millette: Please on that note, and I will have you on anytime. I’d love to have you on and again in the next few months, and and I wanna make sure you’re you’re okay and you’re you’re feeling better. Because again, I know you have some health issues. But but we’re trying to.
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PopPop: Well, actually, actually, I’m I’m over the hump on that.
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Andy Millette: That’s good, appropriate music to my ears.
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Andy Millette: Music reminders. I hope to have you.
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PopPop: Thank you. Thank you very much for your
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PopPop: your concern. And
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PopPop: yeah, I know I’m moving ahead to a positive.
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Andy Millette: Good. If people want to get a hold of you and in touch with you. And they wanted to email you and to get get a hold of your charts, how to, and be a client of yours. How do they do that?
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PopPop: Just send me send me an email.
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PopPop: John Williams.
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PopPop: just as it sounds. JOHN. WILL. IAMS. All. One word.
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PopPop: Ampersand at
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PopPop: shadow stats
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PopPop: dot com.
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PopPop: My phone number is 5, 1 0, 7, 6, 3,
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PopPop: 5, 7, 8, 6. I’m always happy to talk on the telephone.
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Andy Millette: I will put all of this in the show notes, and I should have done this in the beginning, John, but give us a little bit about your background, and I do know it, but I want to hear it from you. It is quite impressive.
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PopPop: Well, my father imported the steel chainsaw from West Germany.
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Andy Millette: Didn’t know that.
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PopPop: J.
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PopPop: That got me into I I was looking to get into that business
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PopPop: and went off to Dartmouth College and studied economics, and
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PopPop: but I’ve I’ve found that
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PopPop: there were some ways of the Conamric modeling to which I was introduced by a very nice professor.
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PopPop: A
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PopPop: stammer escapes me at the moment. But
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PopPop: I found that you could
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PopPop: actually
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PopPop: predict some things in advance with a degree of accuracy based on things that had already happened. You have all sorts of wonderful models that predict things.
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PopPop: but if you’re having to predict all the elements that go into it, it’s
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PopPop: it it that generally doesn’t work well. But if you have actual numbers.
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PopPop: hard numbers that have been published, and they have enough leading relationship to what you’re forecasting. You build models on those.
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PopPop: and they have true causal relationship. That’ll give you an indication into where that’s going. And that’s what I started to do.
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PopPop: and found that I could do with some degree of being actually able to predict things a little bit into the future.
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PopPop: You can’t go too much further than a year
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PopPop: with the hard numbers, but
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PopPop: you can certainly pick up the major trends, and you know how the politicians act, and that’s another element that goes into it.
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Andy Millette: Tab.
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Andy Millette: Well, thank you, John, again. To all the listeners that we’re gonna listen to this, and I’m sure it’ll be in the thousands
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Andy Millette: everybody. John Williams is a. I have the highest amount of respect for him and his work.
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Andy Millette: and I’ve been a follower, a listener since he’s been doing this, I want to say it’s been
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Andy Millette: 2025 years. So thank you, John, I do.
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PopPop: Thank you. Andy.
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Andy Millette: You bet!
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PopPop: Appreciate you having me on the air, and
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PopPop: in tradition, me to your subscribers.
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PopPop: Happy to talk to any of them!
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PopPop: No obligation.
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PopPop: just happy to help anybody.
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Andy Millette: Thanks. John.
