FULL TEXT TRANSCRIPT
there’s a whole bunch of positive stuff happening for for the precious metals complex Gold’s going up Silver’s going
up uh the 10year minus the 2-year is um is starting to maybe show signs that it
wants to turn up look if the US initial jobless claims could Spike up I have like a level at 241,000 but if I start
breaking out above that uh the the gold versus SPX chart the 10
year minus a two-year uh even the the the minor they track I could overlay
that to the uh us jobless claims the es and flows they they they track so the M
the setup is there for the miners to break out to do have a great run but I don’t I just don’t get it
while you [Music]
would Patrick what’s going on how are you hi Andy yeah I’m doing I’m doing
Casual Conversation and Weather Talk
great there so always happy to to catch up and talk charts there should be fun
yeah it’ll be fun so uh real quick what’s it like in Montreal right now you’re in out of Montreal right yeah I’m
Northshore Montreal yeah the weather The Summer’s been great uh can’t can’t ask
for for for much better than that so just try to enjoy the summer before it evaporates away because that’s the thing
when you get four seasons and you have harsh Winters it makes you appreciate more the the the summer the summer
months and they just fly by fast so yeah just trying to enjoy every day there if
it’s nice outside go out with the kids go to the beach do something but uh as
tempting as it is to to stay in front of the screen all day there you gota gotta try not to do that there gotta get out
of B I’m in Atlanta here and uh we just had a death death march of humidity and
uh High uh high temperatures we’re in the hundreds and just a lot of humidity so I’m looking forward to a change of
the season now so why so but uh you don’t have R you don’t have a snow right there’s no snow in in Atlanta never very
little I mean every couple years we’ll get a snow that lasts for two three days oh goodness that’s almost fun yeah so
everybody as I this is what I tell everybody is like you can go um I will take July and
August for uh September through uh June those are nice months so let’s start to talk some
Gold Market Analysis
charts let start out with gold uh again I want to congratulate you when we last
talked he was actually a silver was looking really interesting and when we had you on uh you said you literally
said silver looking really really good it looks like it’s going to break out and why we were talking wasn’t why they
CAU talking literally the next day silver broke out so Greg call thanks for that I know sometimes timing is not on
our side but timing was on your side I’m that certain yeah certain moment it’s it’s
like it’s all about probabilities of these possible moves and it could have
very well not move the next day or like taking more time so you know it’s like it’s always H top colors or bottom
colors they always go down in like you know oh man he called the top well I’m
pretty sure that same top caller tried to call it a lot of tops along the way right because at the at the beginning of
a run to the end there’s only one top but most of the time you’ll call more than one top along the way right you
think you think it’s a top so but if you take that average it’s usually maybe 10% of the time you’re right but people
always it’s like that expression there a broken clock is right twice a day yeah
so I if it happens it’s a top I try not to to uh it’s fun you want to kind of
brag but you shouldn’t really because it’s more an outlier if you’re really honest it’s more outlier chance it just
happened there but right now what happened with silver I probably have to review the
Trading Philosophy and Strategies
chart but yeah 25 it was actually like a a coiling consolidation and the price
was hammering and what happens is in ta when you have confirmed breakouts
especially from Flat planes that means you have a higher high and you had
previously low higher lows and that’s just an uptrend so you’re there and you you’re saying well oh good
good good it’s going up but uh it’s just like an uptrend that was that’s got that got enacted above a certain level so a
professional chart Trader his job is to identify those key levels and the better a chart Trader is the more he’s able to
look at the more important trend lines and signals and avoid the noise because I remember in my Beginnings it’s like I
Saw Head and Shoulders everywhere I was yeah severe steep trend lines like that would break down oh it’s it’s it broke
down it’s gonna go down no it’s like there’s meaning and Nuance to all these trend lines right a flat plane will be
more meaningful than a slanted one the length it would be more important remember bigger the base higher in space
yeah so that’s I think what differentiates an experience CH Trader versus uh someone is’s just starting out
is we’re able to discern the noise just like a I don’t know what’s a famous basketball player like Michael yeah
they’re able to to see what’s important they’ll position themselves to make the high probability shots and they won’t run around like a rookie who has a whole
bunch of energy that’s just wasting energy left and right right the veterans they know they’re slower they’ll just be
positioned at the better places because they have experience so that’s what a a chart an experienced chart Trader brings
to the table is he’ll be he’ll he’ll jump Less on the gun and
try to say that’s the top that’s the bottom he won’t do those mistakes I’m putting in quotes there because
essentially it’s like you’re you’re you’re you’re trying to aim for bragging rights but most of the time that that
that stuff’s going to backfire right so if it happens it’s great professional Treasurer just won’t care okay it it
happened to be the top right because the top will only know in hindsight it happened to be the top that’s fine I don’t care because I’ll never short the
top I will short the important topping structure that breaks down I will short
that and the top will always be in hindsight just like the bottom when I play I never never pick the bottom
because I only know in hindsight so if I’m really truthful to myself it’s kind of nonsense to say oh it’s cheap because
for everybody who tried to buy on the way down that’s cheap and look at Palladium padium was I don’t know close
to 3,000 then was cheap at 2,000 cheap at, 1500 cheap at th000 it’s like just
kid yeah just just cheaper and people say it can’t get cheaper and as soon as you say that it could get cheaper or even worse
than that well I don’t know if it’s worse but it goes sideways forever yeah so you’re stuck and then I have to keep
DCA dollar cost averaging in into something that’s flatlining it it it breaks my heart because there could be
Nvidia going up there could be something else going up and you’re there and you’re just dcing and something that
might break out in one year two years three years five years might never break out for crying out loud never yeah so
that’s I’m glad you said that I really appreciate your your cander and your humility and that’s the markets will
teach you both to be candid be real and be blunt uh and be very humble because
they will humble you yes and it’s like just if I could add more like this philosophy of trading there it’s all H
all all we do is draw trend lines in hindsight and I realize it also like sometimes I have a let’s say I have a
chart Big Picture chart and then there’s a huge 30-year Rising trend line and then I dry it and then there’s
bounces but in real time I might have had shorter term Rising trend lines that
faltered that created these lows higher up so there’s a whole bunch of broken
trend lines along the way to that bigger pattern in hindsight say oh yeah of course it’s clear that that was the trend line that final trend line that
led to the ultimate move that went all the way back down but in real time it’s it’s not that obvious there’ll be a lot
of whips saww there’ll be a lot of L of momentums or momentum regained and then the bull era continues
so you got to be really honest when you like you know you think I have the perfect recipe for for drawing trend
lines the perfect recipe to know when the bull Market’s ending or started because it’s not that fair cut it’s nuan
there’s no magical trend line each one that breaks is just giving you a signal about flowing or accelerating momentum
and eventually eventually one of those trend line breaks will be the one that
leads to the massive Bull Run eventually but trying to be hero and always saying
that I called it like I don’t really focus on that anymore like maybe at the beginning was fun because you’re trying
to build confidence in your trading framework saying hey I’m able to you know to to manage that but like you said the markets humbled me so many times
that it took more time to play out the RO Maps I could have ever had imagine if they they did play out in the direction
I imagin that even that should humble anybody like okay look the market I I thought gold let’s it would would after
the 2020 run H it’s going to go that’s it the bull era started no gold kept
underperforming SPX and now we’re four years later and gold is still yeah maybe we should cover these charts gold is
still underperforming SPX it’s uh nothing’s won there at all Yeah well
yeah let’s start about the charts let’s SP start with gold here um yeah what are the charts uh telling you and um is this
a tradable uh Rally or we’re up around $24 $2500 worth okay so this this is the
Gold Price Projections
goal this is my setup I like a lot it’s the monthly chart log scale always always
guys always put log scale there’s no reason ever to put on linear scale and this this is at the bottom
pane is my distance from my 36 month moving average so essentially this is my formal gaj G gaj how do you pronounce
that in English yeah g g Gage like the reservoir it’s my fuel
Reservoir I could look historically I could draw a trend line here and it tells me that I’ll just zoom in on
this how far can the price be above that 36-month moving average before it’s it’s
crazy like every like you know it’s the price is so high they’re talking your
grandma’s asking you about gold everybody like it’s it happens here it doesn’t so in ta the more meaningful
lines are the ones that are touched the most often so of course somebody could always take this outlier chance outlier
thing and say well look in the 1974 gold was able to stretch itself 127%
but we have the advantage of having a lot of data so saying that that’s going
to happen again and basing your projections based on that outlier chance or even here this one here so it
happened let’s say one time two times and three times three times gold was able to stretch itself 121% but that’s
over what’s a sampling rate how many months do we have since 1968 to today so now you’re talking about less than a
percent chance that this happens again right to be able to stretch yourself so
people are always you know and I used to do it you know like I could set a Target that far away
but in all probabilities that’s not what the evidence is telling you right that’s
an outlier chance and something to to have a 1980 Peak here like gold did like
distance away from its moving average is highly unlikely highly unlikely at this stage right it’s this these outlier
events so I’ll bring you where so as a chart Trader you want to see what’s the
resistance level but the most meaningful resistance level do I have and so now
you’re looking for places where you’ll have many touches here’s one two okay got close here three got close here four
here a little bit above here so I have some type of pivot line here where I’m stretched where I am able to
so I want to start setting up my my profit limits my targets but I’m not too stressed to think that it’s a lower
probably event so now this instead of just having one two three times I have it one time two three let’s say four I
could lower this a little bit there four five six seven eight nine so you see I have now I have more chances of that
being a more probable Target but look at this look at where we are now the more I
raise this line the probabilities of me reaching it are lower and lower right because I I’m removing data points from
that possibility of being stretched so look I’ll just I’ll just show you what it did in 20 after the breakout 2019 all
the peak in 2020 look that’s where we are this is the fuel this is the fuel we have
left I’m going to put a
label the price for gold could probably stretched 14% extra above its moving average now
it’s 26 25% above its three-year moving average we could have a blowoff move right now before everything let’s say
crumbles let’s say you’re in the camp that we’re in a recession but now we’re melting up going in the recession and
then when everybody realizes it’s bad we’re GNA like sink you know so let’s say if that’s the the ongoing scenario
then gold has a chance right now to go up another to go up 50 uh 40% of above
its threeyear moving average so what does that mean here I’ll put here’s my threeyear moving
average what did I say uh 40% 41% the red line is
my threeyear moving average I’m going to put this what did I say 41 yeah 40 41 so
here I’m gonna add my it’s crazy I used trading you so much and I still
sometimes uh say where’s my uh where are my tools
here so here let’s say the three-year moving average keeps going up this way because the sampling rate you’re always
having price points Above So this let’s say gold would rock it upwards from here
and I would stretch myself 41% above my three moving average this could be my Target right
now like if ever gold reaches 2800 like in a timely fashion the next
two three months oh my goodness is that a would be an off aome place to really
like take profits right it’s like that’s and I’ll show you some other like other
Clues there is a whole bunch of here like the basic construct of any
Bull Run is Pole flag so a pole is a is a move up flag pole flag and in a bull
run you’ll have a succession of these I’ll show you what the 2000 ones would look like you’ll have a succession of
these where the it just goes up consolidates goes up consolidates every time it consolidates it lets that three
moving average catch up and you just rinse and repeat until it can’t do it anymore so the
basic classical chart patterns that you have once you’re out of a base a huge
base yeah is a succession of pole Flags right now look at that where’s the flag
so that should scare you where’s my flag because the low lower lower risk entry points are always at the when the flag
breaks out there’s no flag so right now you’re at the pull that pull when is it
going to end right parabolic melt ups are always pulls look at that that’s a pull Parable melt up pull but eventually
it flags and that flag could either fall or continue upwards so now how do I know
so I’m going to put some uh measured moves here like even here the the base of this pattern added on top even this
look that that measure move we could have a flag at any moment here any
moment could have it flag to let that three moving catch up if you get greedy you could say well maybe I have maybe
this is maybe it’s this this Pole flag see that one would bring me close to my 2800 but it what would be very logical
right now is to have some type of flag here a halfway flag and then this this this this flag here would
be the halfway flag that would lead to this bigger Pole flag you know it’s like
Inception there or those Russian dolls right large flag longer time frame will
have multiple pole Flags within it you know all the way on rout but you know you could have it you
could still have it you know like when you get greedy a it’s gonna go up it’s gonna go up straight you know but you’re
you’re stretching the realm of probabilities the more you think that’s gonna happen you know I would definitely
put my I could zoom in on the daily let’s look on the daily yeah let’s look on the daily okay let’s go on The Daily
so here on the daily I have my distance for my 36 day moving average
and it’s stall it’s stalling out actually there so this is here here you have I’ll show I’ll
zoom out so here on the daily it’s like a range here so here when you once you’re 6% above the 36 day moving
average it’s often a place where the price lets it doesn’t mean the price doesn’t go up anymore it means it’s
slowing down enough that the moving average is catching up right so here’s like a power power range Power Range
this is blowoff top on the daily and what happened when we stretched to like 8%
everybody was going bonkers here but that actually marked exactly the
um I see that top yeah you know a top the flag it’s it didn’t go up as fast
anymore right it just right instead of doing I’ll zoom in on you here you see like another beautiful Pole flag here it
didn’t it just didn’t um you know pull flag probably the same distance here
it’s it’s like you know that’s all it is overshot so it’s not going up like this right it’s not it’s it’s having a hard
time here so that’s how it is what I would like to see is a re
acceleration I would like gold to goodness it’s kind of messy here I would
like to see it break out Above This level here and then we’d have a crazy run it’s kind of whole flly
it’s kind of it’s really messy what it what it did there recently yeah right now it’s it’s kind
of messy because when the price keeps going up but the momentum is not breaking out
it’s kind of worrisome you want the momentum here to you want it you want it to get out of its congestion area right
here yeah my ellips you want this to resolve upwards and then this
thing will have a higher chance of reaching its move so on The Daily it’s
this is probably the neck my neck line it’s uh it’s kind of good what it did in that
it’s um it slowed down and let the moving average catch up but if you’re wondering why the daily is slowing down
that much all you have to do is go back on the monthly and we saw that the monthly is also starting to uh to
getting stretch but there’s also you can’t be just fearful of it being stretched right it’s being stretched but
being stretched and hitting resistance being stretched and hitting your classical measured move targets like
that 2,800 area that 3,000 area but that’s selling to strength but you could also wait say Okay I want to see if it
could go to 4,000 so what you have to do after that is you draw a rising trend line a severe one even on the momentum
eventually maybe we’ll have a third bounce here and if ever the momentum breaks
down then you say okay I’m out you’re selling into some weakness but you get
at the you gave yourself a chance of it going back up so if it doesn’t go back
up and it falls here and loses that Rising momentum then you would probably bail in some weakness instead of just
holding on and letting it do a full reset opportunity cost you know because the correction is
either price correction or consolidation is uh done completed by time and or
Price Right you could have price going sideways letting moving average catch up or you could have price go down catching
up to the moving average and that’s like there two ways and sometimes it’s a combination of both right you have the
Pole flag that’s slightly going down so you don’t want so right now gold
still super healthy but there is a warning sign that the flag has been reached like there is one Pole flag that
has been reached you should expect some type of Correction along the way but if it
doesn’t then it’s just this uptrend right here that’s going to bring you to that $2,800 Target in like no worries
like to make this super simple it I above an inclining 12 12 month moving average yes
yeah you’re you’re an uptrend on that time frame it’s like super super mathematical super
like don’t want to say word stupid but it’s um you know it’s it’s it’s you don’t need to be a rocket science in ta
to understand that if the price is trending look at look at what happened in the the 2000s run yeah just up and up
and up until it didn’t and when once it didn’t it faltered Bel you you you just you know you get out right you never
catch the top never catch the bottom you ride you ride the the bulk of it because
what’s going to happen is you’re gonna let’s say you bought on this breakout candle here and you sold on either this
one red candle here that closed below or that one that’s what a professional chart Trader is is going for he’s not
going for uh the the bragging rights of saying uh I bought here and I sold here
if somebody tells you that you have to I like I told you from a probability
aspect wise it’s it’s much less probable yeah always regularly call tops and
bottoms always like in hindsight looks great but to reproduce that over time and time is this is very hard this much
easier to do yeah much easier because you’re already in the uptrend and as soon as you start losing the uptrend
you’re out right it’s not you’re not guessing where the top is you’re actually exiting when you’re losing a
moving average yeah no that’s some great advice just taking a good chunk out of the middle um
Silver Market Insights
let’s talk uh silver here what do you see in silver and again you’re too humble again for this but I’d say you
did have a great call and again uh you’re not interested in that but uh I just really want the
world to know that that when we were talking so it was breaking out and you called it so yeah yeah but yeah like you said
there we like you know we shouldn’t uh yeah I get it but I want credit what credits do but we want we want where are
we in the middle that we’ll get to the me yeah so this this this this is like I
think I did a tweet post a while back and I said the silver Bulls won but I think it was on the corly chart and they
did win because what happened on the corly chart is this is what I call a
wall previous support break down that support becomes resistant so now it’s a
wall it tried to close above that wall in 20 all these These are quarterly candle closes yeah look at that and it
it closed above that wall and all the it did it in the what’s that Q2 we did it
it’s D we CL so now instead of living in fear the the burden is on the Bears to
bring it that back down below because now the Bulls y the Bulls low higher low
and again remember when I said horizontal line what what did that corly close create you see that that’s swing
High higher high it’s an uptrend higher lows higher highs uptrend and if you
don’t believe me just look at the moving average this is a 12 quarter moving average so the three I think that’s a great picture right there look at that I
mean that like what you just said go ahead go ahead sorry no but yeah you put put put some color on my comments there
because sometimes you know I no that’s a great I mean that’s exactly it we had a break out and then what you just said
now the burden of proof is on the bearers because you’re you’re you’re break out top is your support now and
we’re right there so you know if you put a you don’t even have to put a gun to my head it’s like that’s a that’s a bull
formation and I’m not as smart as you I’m not smart at all man I’m just
you know I’m just a guy who’s been observing charts for for like oh I don’t know how long they’re like a decade and
I it’s just observations that I do you know like yeah look at the charts as long as I did I’m pretty sure you you
you start seeing the same stuff I see there do with looking at less Char less charge and cuz look at that it’s
sometimes it’s like because or else you you it’s like the the beaten wife uh syndrome like she’s always scared that
her husband he raises his hand to grab a coffee mug she thinks he’s gonna hit her it’s like oh what why it’s like you’re
this the silver Bulls they’ve been they’ve been that’s what a bar Market does so much yeah it just makes you like
it you know look what do you want me to tell you JP Morgan blah blah blah like all that look you’re above a three-year
moving average you’ve closed above that wall and look even during the month like this is a wick here during the quarter
price went all the way back down to 26 right I’m sure tons of people were panicking back then right yeah like on
the did what they supposed to do but yeah you’re supposed to panic a silver bll that doesn’t panic is not a
The Nature of Market Tests
silver bll so yeah the price did what it was supposed to do it had a balance right there right
on where it was supposed to yes and that’s a test and they’re be another test until one day there’s no more tests
and now after that once you you break out above that there and then after that that’s that’s in the past of course it
could be an not liar event where it comes in severely rate retests it but again that’s the burden
of the work has to be done on the Bears you know the Bulls have to always be worried in an uptrend the Bulls always
have to be worried about how stretch I am am I from the moving average that’s all you have to worry about right how
stretch am I how stretch am I put it yeah yes that’s all you have to worry about because it’s it’s good for your
Understanding Market Corrections
psyche for your emotional profile to say look I’m stretch I know my portfolio went up super high but I got to expect
some type of Correction there there’s going to be one it could be long it could be nasty there’ll be you know it’ll be some type of crazy correction
eventually look at that one here look look silver went up super high above the nine-year moving average that’s the red line it retested it so that’s a so the
higher the time frame the more important the moves are so you got to also choose but there’s no reason to have gone
through all that there because you could have zoomed in on the daily chart on the weekly chart because look before this
Historical Market Movements
corly defined correction happens and a retest look at that a retest you’re going to love this one a retest of the
the breakout line look at that the wall support support support support break down becomes resistance can’t 2016
cannot get back above so look what happened in 2020 that that resistance became support and look what happened
like two three two years later silver retest said that and then it went up so
but there’s no reason for you to go through all that all you have to do is once here you have you start having a
daily defined correction happening and a weekly one you step aside and you you
let that this nonsense happen until until the price resolves a year
later two years later it might never resolve and once it resolves then you get back in and you avoid stackers guys
have fun buy whenever you want every day any day buy as much silver as you ounces it’s fine but for a Trader all this
could have been avoided there because here you were stretched from the moving average look on the corly
chart oh yeah here see here’s it 1970s breakout outlier event retest here
support outlier event and look here in the 83 resistance in 80 98
resistance 2004 above went sideways then Bull Run for silver retest from above
200 yeahp but look here resistance resistance resistance resistance so the
momentum as defined by distance from the 36 quarter moving average this can make a nice post there
we actually just broke out last quarter we just broke out so the momentum yeah
has also broken out and until it closes below that Rising trend line you have to
be bullish Yep this okay I’ll do a tangent on this because uh for me I I
Defining Bull Markets and Bull Eras
Define two bull markets I have like I have two names for them there’s there’s a bull
market which is simply the price of an instrument in in a vacuum going upwards
trending upwards right so silver and gold are in Bull markets on their own price chart they’ve been in there for a
while even you can make a case okay or maybe here broke out then a continuation pattern here so this is 100% gold and
silver are in Bull markets yeah but are they in Bull eras and the answer is no
and I’ll tell you why because for me bull era is your price has to be trending upwards but your your ratio
your performance versus a major asset class versus let’s say gold versus SPX
you have to be also trending up against a competing asset classes because that’s a bull era your price start’s going up
but you’re going up faster than the other guys and that means you have Capital flows favoring your asset class
and instead of the other it makes that your nominal price chart will go up faster and
harder in in the price appreciation the the pullbacks will have will be buying
opportunities more than selling opportunities you know they’ll have more chances of those pull Flags will have more chances of Breaking Upwards look at
that this this is gold versus that’s I wanted to ask you yeah go ahead versus them go ahead remove all drawings remove
am I okay so this is gold versus SPX this is the bow run for gold from
Analyzing Gold vs. SPX
2001 to 2011 so gold bottomed I don’t know at two2 $300 and then it started
out started putting a bottom versus uh that’s the corly chart again versus SPX
and then after that pull flag pull flag pull flag till last flag just ultimately
failed and it ended but look this is the is I have because now even if gold is at
2400 it’s not outperforming SPX what does that mean that means SPX is going
up as fast as gold so there’s still Market participants which are the
capital flows I say the billions and trillions of dollars and there’s like a swivel how much do I go in SPX or do I
go in gold right now it’s you know it’s been 5050 since uh 2018 so for six years
right now SPX has performed equally to go of course SPX if I do the dividend
adjusted it’s probably beating gold right because you know gold is is just a rock
right now gold what it’s done is it slowed it’s stopped it’s downwards
momentum versus SPX that’s step one slow down because before I could start going
up I need to slow down the momentum so it’s slow it down yeah what you want
right now is this this angle trend line right now
it’s uh broken out of but again remember it’s the the most important one is going to be the the flat plane ones so you
start getting way more bullish gold once it’s able up to solidly close above 479
so I’m looking for five so if ever gold is able to close up here and then it’s
probably maybe do a retest that this is the bull ERA this
the breakout the retest this is the bull era because the minor track that silver
tracks it they’re going to they’re they’re going to they’re going to go Bonkers get $8,000 gold or $5,000 gold
you can but that the chance of getting those numbers much higher once gold is
able to outperform SPX much much higher but we’re that’s a great point Y that is
such a great point I can emphasize anything else so bull era guys is your
instrument out in a bull market on its own but also outperforming SPX because again why just if instrument a is going
up and instrument B is going up but instrument a is not outperforming instrument B why the hell am I holding instrument a right why am I why I’m
telling you you could make more money holding B you want to be stubborn and keep holding a it is there there’s
something wrong in the logic there unless you could find some semantics or some counter logic to that I I know I’ve heard arguments like well I think a it
will outperform B eventually okay fine but let’s wait why why front run that possibility just just wait until it does
outperform it because if it doesn’t you’re you’re just you know you’re giving away the opportunity it’s like H
you know a professional in any sport any will never give out his Edge right like I’m not going to go all in in poker
until I have a high I have the nuts or high probity play I I just won’t right
so why in trading give away that Advantage yeah anybody could do a racial chart anybody could put a moving average
on it it’s super like I didn’t do crazy ta here look at it’s the moving averages now they’re coiling and tightening this
is great step one but what you want is you want it to go upwards like that and
I’ll look in the 70s I’ll show you the look at that look at the 70s goodness it’s
like that’s look at Golden Cross on the ply chart that is a bull that’s that’s
1972 was the bull era for precious metals that’s when it started even if
gold price was going up before or not it does that’s that’s how you define a bullera and that could be Bitcoin versus
SPX it could be any two instruments yeah and that will tell you if you’re in a bull aror yeah let’s talk briefly uh
Evaluating GDX and Miners
about the stocks GDX and uh what you’re seeing there what are the charts telling
you there well jdx jdx jdx okay Cy chart Cy
chart is very good to remove noise so this is possibly because you need three three
reaction at the very least to morph a trend line into existence so now we had one reaction
two with that Wick coming in now what’s quarter ending uh September is this the
month no July August uh the quarter is ending in and and if September is be the end of the quarter we’ll have to see but
what would be very healthy is not a breakout here what would be healthy would just be
a close the quarter right where we are maybe go down here and then that would
be super bullish there this this would be uh you know that would be Target for jdx all
the way up to you know 57 that would be much healthier here and the fact that
you go sideways and slightly down you’re letting those moving averages catch up yeah and yeah that that that would make
it much more powerful move there pull flag so if this was the
pull yeah leading the flag then after that see it’s even creating a higher
range of targets so for jdx that would probably be the move so I
could do is you know what’s a jdx doing versus
SPX look same thing you’re not even not performing SPX so why why you in jdx
right yeah jdx will go Bonkers I’ll do Aza versus SPX because Aza is the jdx
they’re the same chart but I have more um I have more
data and look here was the Bull Run for the miners outperforming SPX back here
2001 to 2002 and then the miners they they had a nice little run here 2005 to
2010 that was the bull era for the miners but look there’s no evidence here
at all that the miners are in any type of buera they’re below
the threeyear moving average the nyear moving average not even close
so I know everybody wants to catch a bottom right like you know that could have been a bottom that could have been
a bottom a lot of people looking at this here oh that’s my botom well guys what
if it isn’t oh yeah what if it isn’t it’s like there’s no evidence you’re an uptrend so the probabilities of that
being a bottom are much lower it it just it there something that that rubs me the wrong
way there I’m trying to to rationalize the logic and people trying to catch these bottoms because they always trig themselves and saying well the
percentage moves are huge from the bottom up of course they are that thing’s been destroyed so much anything that’s a penny that goes up to you know
$10 of course the percentage moves are this is a log scale the highest percentage moves and they’re always look
a like you know they look crazy off bottoms
right but there’s no uptrend yet there’s no uptrend yet you know I there’s
there’s just none so that could be just a you know that thing could just continue going sideways and it all
depends your time frame like you know it could go up here like it could go back down here that could just be a bare flag
this this whole this whole pattern could just be a waterfall right Pole flag like
you know goodness man like that could happen but people buy here look it depends where they’re exit here maybe they’re playing it all the way up here
but if you’re buying here and thinking that this is a higher probability play at
this stage it’s just not quite there yet yeah so but it is there’s a nice setup
though there’s look at there’s it’s it’s a that’s the distance from the 36 quarter moving average there’s a nice
setup but it’s still it’s like there’s still downwards pressure it’s like that that moving average
here it gave some hope like a few times like if you look in the past you know
you had some stuff here say oh look it’s it’s starting to move up you know somebody could have drawn their line like that like you know like I said you
always drawing in hindsight sometimes people in hindsight they draw it like this because they think but in real
time this is probably let me I’ll show you this thing where’s
my I’ll just hide it here see here let’s say I didn’t know
here it’s here I’ll put on the line chart let’s say somebody’s doing his but one touch two touch three Touch four
touch five touch oh look it’s it’s a breakout here it’s a break break out right no look what happened spray it’s
the downwards pressure of of the the moving averages still made that thing
kill you right so this is not it is in the technical t t technical sense a
breakout of the trend line but again it’s a nuanced game that breakout what is it actually worth you know you know
like we all have cars but you have he has a Porsche he has a Mercedes that guy has a Honda it’s there all different
type of cars right so this is a breakout of descending trend line but it’s
descending the steepness of it is important and also you have the moving averages um giving Clues so really it’s
just let’s wait and see if GDX has some nice setups but we just need to wait really wait and see according to the
charts yes yes there’s a whole bunch of positive stuff happening for for the precious metals complex Gold’s going up
Silver’s going up uh the 10y year minus the care year is um is starting to maybe
show signs that it wants to turn up look if the US initial jobless claims could Spike up I have like a level at 241,000
but if I start breaking out above that uh the the gold versus SPX chart the 10year
minus a two-year uh even the the the miners they track I could overlay that
to the uh us jobless claims the es and flows the they they track so the M the
setup is there for the miners to break out to do have a great run but I don’t I just don’t get it why
you would front run because from 2020 to 2024 the fundamentals and the narratives
that miners are cheap or whatever is cheap and platinum’s cheap right but platinum’s gone nowhere padium just got
like P yeah four years of your life four years and you could have just looked at
a moving average and said look I lost my moving average that’s the market telling me hey it’s not time yet you know yeah
The Importance of Technical Analysis
it’s a that’s why like I’m happy you have technical guys on your show because
fundamental guys they they don’t see that right it’s like uh fundamentals are
deceptive but charts are never deceptive in the sense that a chart is a chart I
can of course I could spin a narrative and draw trend lines a certain way but if it’s a the price is the price no
matter like some people are scared of I put a chart on the Twitter there maybe I could show you that one yeah it reminds
me of a saying in business the numbers are the numbers regardless of the reason the numbers are the numbers yes who said
that he’s a wise man it’s like I think Jim Collins he said that the numbers are the numbers yeah it’s like you know it’s
like look I put this chart out this is a silver chart daily I just want to show here’s 2008 the recession of 2008 was
backfilled officially I’m pretty sure it’s like so in 2008 January officially they
backfilled it we were in a recession you know but look at that the price of silver broke out here above that uh
goodness what’s my moving average my 96 day moving average broke out I did a poll flag remember po flag broke out
here I could have drawn a trend line so silver and I’m pretty sure a lot of people oh it’s a recession coming
whatever the Sam rule or whatever all these the 10 minus 2 year like all these indicators for
that recession but look if you would have been Paralyzed by fear silver was in nut Trend until it
wasn’t but it ran 44% it ran from $14 all the way to $21 in an uptrend where just regular ta
if I if I was oblivious to recession and all these people talking about whatever you know back in 2008 I don’t even know
there was a Twitter but you had that run right until that run could have continued upwards but it didn’t went
sideways it lows a moving average you could have bailed here and then you had to find and you could have bailed easily here and avoided all this draw down and
look the recession ended here and if you wait for the recession to be ended silver already bought him in the abyss
of the recession and here regained its 96 day moving average going up P flag
pull like you know it’s like the chart is the chart and if if the market
participants are smelling that the recession’s going to end they’re going to start pricing it before right it
doesn’t look it doesn’t have to be like 2008 there’s recessions where um it didn’t behave like that but I’ve done a
chart like over I don’t know what the probability maybe seven times out of nine or whatever recession silver likes
to bottom in in the abyss of one so there’s no reason to be feared to be
fear to to fear a crash like you know the the CRA the doomsayers every single day every single year like this is the
end the dead is unsustainable goodness right you’ve heard this stuff since since 2020 like like even 2008 the death
is like you know just look at the chart uh because there’s always there’s always some factor that
we don’t know about which is like the UN it’s very hard for us to imagine what we
don’t know because we don’t know it it’s hard to imagine it’s there but it’s there I don’t know if it’s making sense
so yeah that guy if you think like you know the the uranium you know has to go up
they’re building these nuclear facilities and there there’s a shortage okay that’s fine we know that but you
have to ask yourself what don’t I know right the are the capital flows is the rate of the N2 being withdrawn by the
FED do I know about that do I know about uh some other thing that could impact
the the uranium price is some billionaire Chic in Saudi Arabia that
owns oil is is he shorting uranium while I think it’s bullish but he has you
know’s he’s going against me there’s always somebody else taking the opposite position of us yeah so it’s the
aggregate of all these people that’s creating the price chart that’s why the price chart never deceives because it
has all of that and it just breaks my heart when I see people that are
trapped in a narrative they played they have the narrative the price went up with them great but then the price
starting losing the daily the weekly all those moving averages but the fundamentals never changed and now
goodness it’s l it all back yeah they’re stuck uranium is a great example because
it really is recently it’s get recent examples it’s a recent example look I’m not in the long term it’s still an
uptrend it’s still an up Trend but now now it’s been creating a lot of
pain because all all tops always start with a short-term correction all of them
but not all short-term Corrections are Market tops right so you just got to decide once you enter in a
correction how much pain am I willing to take like you know I’m in a I’m in a weekly defined correction that it could
last months six months one year in time and the price let’s say my moving average is super low I could lose 20 30%
if I’m willing to accept that take that risk stick out stick it out but you have
also have to accept that that could have been the top and that correction could fail and that was the market top you’ll
only know in hindsight that was the top you’ll only know hindsight so my best advice I’m not Financial advice but I
don’t see the counterargument of just stepping aside it’s like Insurance in the just take them Insurance step aside
why why not go cash I don’t get it is it because you have 304 30 40 Miners and it’s a pain for you to sell all of them
and you don’t want to pay commission fees then trim down on the the amount of miners or stuff you hold hold one or two
that are very liquid like canico or whatever and play that one you don’t get the capital flows because
if if you have too many stuff if the the technicality of selling is too much of a
burden for you then you’re dead man walking because you’ll always trick yourself into holding because ah ah it’s
tax season I don’t even know what that means ah like I don’t even care about the tax I never consider tax purposes
because I sell the charts failing because if I don’t sell the price could be much lower and even the taxes that I
would have saved I I’ll get demolished right yeah taxes guys is the cost of
doing business yeah it’s just like I don’t we don’t stock Traders we don’t pay for walls we don’t pay for anything
the the taxes you pay and the commission fees that’s the only cost of doing business right you’re not a pizza store owner you don’t have employees so for me
if a trend’s broken I do not care what it like it’s broken it’s like I exit tax
I understand there’s penalties there stuff and I just get in you know I get in the I’ll get in later when it
resolves upwards yeah well Patrick I want to think we’ll end on that I just
Final Thoughts and Contact Information
want to thank you so much for your time I think you’re an exceptional Trader you do uh you’re also very humble um so
everybody out there if people want to do business or are a fan of your work as I am how do they find you and how do they
reach out to you you’re so nice Andy yeah look at Twitter Barts Swan or the a
website I have with Kevin wwor there Northstar bats.com like we do this stuff all the time you know uh protect your
your Capital always evaluate through multiple lenses to make sure you know you get the
weight of evidence behind you and uh it’s never about bragging rights and stuff like that that might be that’s
super clickbait of course sometimes you know it just happened like I called the Bitcoin top in 2021 but it’s not that I
I wanted to call it I just pointed out that there were more evidence that it was probable at at that
moment just happened you know that it was a top you know so that you know
that’s not right go go for uh reliability go for consistency and
that’s going to keep you in the game much longer than always trying to to pick a bottom or a top yeah I would
agree all right I will put all of this in the show notes below this as well as in the um the podcast again I just want
to thank you so much for your time thank you Andy I appreciate it I
