Copper is edging higher today, while nickel is essentially flat. Trading Economics shows copper at $5.95/lb on May 4, up 0.26% on the day, while nickel is $19,410/tonne on May 4, unchanged on the day in the latest posted reading. That leaves copper slightly firmer, but both metals are still trading at elevated levels relative to a year ago.
Today’s pricing snapshot
According to Trading Economics, copper is up 6.52% over the past month and 27.94% year over year. Nickel is up 13.88% over the past month and 24.94% from a year ago. So nickel still has the stronger one-month move, while copper is slightly ahead on the one-year comparison.
5 key drivers behind today’s move
1) Copper still has a real concentrate shortage underneath the market
One of copper’s biggest structural supports remains the squeeze in concentrate supply. Reuters-reported coverage says Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on 2026 treatment and refining charges of $0 per metric ton and 0 cents per pound, versus $21.25/tonne and 2.125 cents/lb for 2025. That kind of TC/RC collapse is a strong sign that smelter feedstock remains extremely tight.
2) Copper is steady today, but still below its January high
Trading Economics says copper’s all-time high was $6.58/lb in January 2026. With the metal now at $5.95/lb, today’s action looks more like stabilization in a still-strong market than a fresh breakout. That is an inference from the latest May 4 price relative to the January record.
3) Indonesia’s quota cuts are still the main nickel story
Nickel’s core support remains Indonesia’s tighter ore policy. Argus reports Indonesia’s 2026 nickel production quota is expected to be cut to about 260 million-270 million tonnes. Since Indonesia dominates global nickel supply growth, cuts of that size remain one of the biggest reasons nickel prices have stayed supported.
4) Nickel’s rally still looks more policy-led than demand-led
Trading Economics shows nickel is flat today after a strong recent run, and its monthly gain remains much larger than copper’s. That pattern fits a market still being held up mainly by supply discipline and quota restraint rather than by a broad surge in end demand. This is an inference from the current pricing trend together with the Indonesia quota story.
5) Both metals are strong, but for different reasons
Copper’s issue is concentrate scarcity flowing through the smelting chain, while nickel’s issue is direct ore restriction from the world’s dominant producer. That helps explain why copper can grind higher modestly while nickel stays elevated even on a flat day. The supply story is bullish for both, but it reaches prices through different channels.
What to watch next
For copper, the key question is whether the concentrate squeeze starts pushing prices back toward the January high. For nickel, traders will keep watching whether Indonesia sticks to tighter quotas and whether actual production stays constrained enough to justify the recent rally.
Bottom line
On May 4, 2026, copper looks steadier on the day, while nickel still has better short-term momentum from its larger monthly gain. Copper still has the clearer long-term scarcity story through smelter economics, but nickel remains the more policy-sensitive metal because Indonesia’s quota decisions are doing much of the market’s work.
